俄罗斯扩大使用人民币的现状与前景评估

The Current Situation and Prospect of Expanding Use of RMB in Russia

2022年2月乌克兰危机升级后,俄罗斯受到美西方空前严厉的经济和金融制裁。在此背景下,俄罗斯大幅扩大人民币的使用范围,使人民币在其国际储备和支付中发挥重要作用,成为交易量最大的外币。俄罗斯选择人民币,既是出于防范制裁风险、维护金融稳定与安全、强化中俄合作的战略考虑,也是迫于经济转向、本国货币卢布无法完全替代西方货币的现实情况。俄罗斯将继续使用人民币等友好国家的货币,这在一定程度上有利于推动人民币国际化。美西方在金融上对俄罗斯采取“极限施压”,对美元霸权本身造成伤害,或将迫使更多国家寻找美元的替代方案。

After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022,Russia has suffered from unprecedentedly severe economic and financial sanctions by the U.S.and the West.It is difficult for Russia to raise funds in Western markets.The use of Western cur⁃rencies such as U.S.dollar and the euro,as well as the international financial infra⁃structure,is severely restricted.About$300 billion in foreign exchange reserves,a large number of legal entities’and individuals’assets,have been frozen by the West.Under this background,Russia has significantly expanded the use of the RMB,making it play an important role in its international reserves and international pay⁃ments.RMB has also become the foreign currency with the largest transaction vol⁃ume in Russia.Russia’s choice of RMB is not only due to strategic considerations of preventing the risk of sanctions,maintaining financial stability and security,and strengthening Sino-Russian cooperation,but also because of the realities of econom⁃ic transformation and the inability of its national currency,the ruble,to fully replace Western currencies.In the foreseeable future,since the Ukraine crisis will continue,Russia’s relationship with the West will be difficult to ease,the economic and finan⁃cial sanctions imposed against Russia will not be reduced,and Russia can only con⁃tinue to use the RMB and other currencies of friendly countries.Overall,the develop⁃ment of RMB in Russia is still in its infancy.Russia still has concerns about expand⁃ing the use of RMB,and its economy will not be completely“RMB-ized”for the time being.Against the backdrop of intensified U.S.-Western repression of third parties cooperating with Russia,China-Russia financial cooperation should also be alert to the risk of Western secondary sanctions.Meanwhile,Russia’s heavy reliance on the RMB is conducive to promoting the internationalization of the RMB to a certain ex⁃tent.The U.S.and the West have adopted“maximum financial pressure”on Russia.Although it has demonstrated the power of the US dollar weapon,it has also caused damage to the US dollar hegemony itself and may force more countries to find alterna⁃tives to the US dollar.