基于Apriori算法的飞机冲偏出跑道诱因挖掘

Mining of Inducement for Aircraft Runway Overrun Based on Apriori Algorithm

为加强民航客机飞行运行全过程的安全管理,减少飞机起降阶段冲偏出跑道事件发生的概率,对冲偏出跑道事件中的诱发因素进行定性和定量分析,根据事故事件特点,建立起降阶段飞机冲偏出跑道事件诱因分析体系,对不同类型的事件进行布尔离散化,采用Apriori算法对飞机冲偏出跑道数据集开展关联分析,挖掘出不同诱发因素之间的关联规则。以国内某航空公司波音737机队在2001-2021年间冲偏出跑道数据进行分类和识别;运用Apriori算法建立数据挖掘仿真模型;使用MATLAB编程迭代计算,找到飞机冲偏出跑道诱因中有强关联的因素,并保留其数据。结果表明,当飞机故障时,有28.77%的概率会出现飞行员操作有误;当道面积雪时,有23.64%的概率会出现违反标准操作程序;当飞行程序设计不合理时,有22.84%的概率会出现飞行员判断有误;当飞机故障时,有20.65%的概率会出现飞行员控制有误;当跑道道面湿滑时,有20.12%的概率会出现飞行员控制有误。

In order to strengthen the safety management of the whole flight process of civil aviation passenger aircraft and reduce the probability of the event that the aircraft deviates from the runway in the take-off and landing stage,the paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the inducing factors of the event.According to the characteristics of accidents and events,the incentive analysis system of aircraft colliding off the runway in the take-off and landing stage was established,and Boolean discretization was carried out for different types of events.Apriori algorithm was used to carry out association analysis on the data set of aircraft impact and deviation from the runway,and mine the association rules between different inducing factors.Firstly,the data of Boeing 737 fleet of a domestic airline that missed the runway from 2001 to 2021 were classified and identified;Then,the Apriori algorithm was used to establish the data mining simulation model;Finally,Matlab programming was used for iterative calculation to find the strongly related factors in the incentives for the aircraft to rush out of the runway and retain its data.The results show that,when the aircraft fails,there is a 28.77%probability that the pilot will make mistakes in operation;When the road is covered with snow,there is a 23.64%probability that the standard operating procedures will be violated;When the flight procedure design is unreasonable,there is a 22.84%probability that the pilot will make a wrong judgment;In case of aircraft failure,there is a 20.65%probability of pilot control error;When the runway surface is wet and slippery,there is a 20.12%probability of pilot control error.