国内煤制天然气产业发展现状与趋势分析

Analysis of current situation and trends in development of coal-based synthetic natural gas industry in China

我国自“十一五”开始煤制天然气示范项目建设,长期以来环保问题和经济性是制约煤制天然气产业发展的关键问题。双碳目标下,我国天然气消费量到2035—2040年将有巨大的增长空间,而国际天然气市场波动进一步提高了对供应安全的要求。煤制天然气作为现代煤化工的重要形式,有利于促进煤炭清洁低碳化利用。分析了我国煤制天然气产业的机遇和挑战,天然气多元化供应和安全储备需要给煤制天然气产业带来了历史性机遇,而终端市场竞争力不强和高碳排放等环保问题是该产业的长期挑战。分析了煤制天然气生产成本和到达终端市场的综合成本,在环渤海、长三角和中部地区3个天然气区域市场内,与其他多种气源的经济性进行了比较。结合煤制天然气产能和供应能力的增长趋势,预计2030年前我国煤制天然气市场需求呈上升趋势,煤制天然气将发挥丰富终端气源和应急供应的重要作用。

China has initiated coal-based synthetic natural gas(SNG)demonstration projects since the“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”.Environmental issues and economic viability have long been critical challenges restricting the development of the coal-based SNG industry.With the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,there is enormous growth potential in China’s natural gas consumption from 2035 to 2040.Fluctuations in the international natural gas market have further heightened demands for supply security.As a significant form of modern coal chemical industry,coal-based SNG is conducive to promoting the clean and low-carbon utilization of coal.The opportunities and challenges in China’s coal-based SNG industry were analyzed.The diversification of natural gas supply and the requirement of secure reserves present a historic opportunity for the coal-based SNG industry.However,challenges such as weak competitiveness in end markets and environmental issues,including high carbon emissions,pose long-term obstacles to the industry.The production costs of coal-based SNG and the comprehensive costs to reach the end market were analyzed.Economic comparisons were made with other gas sources within three natural gas regional markets:Bohai Rim,Yangtze River Delta,and Central China.Considering the increasing trend in coal-based SNG production capacity and supply capabilities,it is projected that the demand for the coal-based SNG market in China will rise before 2030.Coal-based SNG will play a crucial role in providing abundant terminal gas sources and emergency supply.