我国民航客运碳排放因子及影响因素研究

Study on factors influencing carbon emissions in civil aviation passenger transport in China

针对民航碳排放问题,对民航客运碳排放影响因素进行研究,构建飞机碳排放因子模型,选取保有量较高的典型机型进行实证研究,分析机型大小、航程、客座率、经停次数对碳排放因子的影响.研究结果表明:飞行器技术提升、客座率、平均运距、大型飞机的比例上升,我国民航客运碳排放因子呈下降趋势;仅改变航程时,碳排放因子随航程增加而下降,2 000 km航程下典型机型A330、B787、A321、B737满载且以额定巡航速度飞行的碳排放因子较800 km下降13%~22%;仅改变经停次数时,碳排放因子随经停次数增加而增大,且大型飞机经停的碳排放因子增幅更大,1 000 km航程下,A330、A321满载时经停1次碳排放因子较直达时分别增加约31%、19%;经停导致的碳排放因子上升可由经停带来的客座率提升抵消,为保持碳排放因子保持不变,大型飞机所需客座率上升的比例更高,1 500 km航程下,直达航班客座率为50%时,A330、A321机型经停1次的客座率需要分别达到62.1%、57.7%,才能使经停航班的碳排放因子与直达航班保持一致;从碳排放角度考虑,中型客机比大型客机更适合开行经停航班.

To address the carbon emission issues in civil aviation,this study investigates the factors in⁃fluencing carbon emissions in civil aviation passenger transport.It constructs an aircraft carbon emis⁃sion factor model and conducts empirical research on typical aircraft with high utilization rates.The analysis focuses on the effects of aircraft size,range,passenger load factor,and the number of stop⁃overs on carbon emission factors.The results indicate that advancements in aircraft technology,increased passenger load factors,longer average transport distances,and a higher proportion of large aircraft contribute to a decreasing carbon emission factor in China’s civil aviation passenger transport.When only the range is changed,the carbon emission factor decreases as the range increases.For ex⁃ample,at a 2000 km range,typical aircraft models like A330,B787,A321,and B737 flying at full load and rated cruising speed exhibit a reduced carbon emission factor by 13%to 22%compared to an 800 km range.Increasing the number of stopovers leads to an increase in the carbon emission factor,with larger aircraft experiencing a greater increase.For a 1000 km range,the carbon emission factor for A330 and A321 at full load increases by approximately 31%and 19%,respectively,for one stop⁃over compared to a direct flight.The increase in carbon emission factor due to a stopover can be offset by the rise in passenger load factor resulting from the same stopover.To maintain a consistent carbon emission factor,large aircraft require a higher increase in the passenger load factor compared to small aircraft.For a 1500 km range,when the passenger load factor for a direct flight is 50%,the passenger load factors for A330 and A321 with one stopover need to reach 62.1%and 57.7%,respectively.This adjustment aligns the carbon emission factors for stopover flights with those for direct flights.From a carbon emission perspective,medium-sized airliners are more suitable for operating stopover flights than large airliners.