MODE检验在天气预报中的应用研究进展

Advancements in Study on the Application of MODE Verification Method in Weather Forecasting

客观评价高分辨率中小尺度变量的预报表现是数值天气预报模式应用和发展的重要环节。传统点对点的检验在高分辨率数值预报模式评估中存在显著不足。空间面向对象或目标法MODE检验方法利用卷积函数和给定的阈值在预报和观测场中识别目标对象、诊断模式的预报表现,在天气预报中有着广泛应用。首先系统回顾了MODE检验方法的学术思想、技术架构、算法流程和检验指标;详细归纳了MODE检验在降水预报、天气雷达、卫星云图、集合预报以及其他不同要素或物理量场中的典型应用,阐述了检验结果在数值模式预报质量评价中的意义和对天气预报结果主客观订正的影响;介绍了近年来MODE检验方法的更新发展,主要包括考虑不匹配目标对象属性的综合评价指数MCS,以椭球体为目标的三维时域空间对象追踪和MODE扩展的时域检验方法MODE-TD;最后总结和讨论了MODE检验方法的适用性、优势和不足,同时对MODE检验方法未来的发展方向和应用前景进行了展望。旨在为更好地应用MODE检验方法诊断数值模式的预报性能提供参考。

The objective evaluation of small-scale variables’forecast performance is vital for the application and development of Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP).Traditional point-to-point verification has significant limitations in the evaluation of high-resolution NWP.The Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE)method utilizes convolution functions and a given threshold to identify objects in the forecast and observation fields,extract their attributes,and diagnose the performance of the NWP.It has been widely applied in weather forecasting.This paper systematically reviews the academic ideas,technical framework,algorithm flow,and verification indices of the MODE spatial verification method.Subsequently,this paper summarizes the typical applications of MODE verification in precipitation forecasting,weather radar,satellite cloud images,ensemble forecasting,and other elements.It elaborates on the significance of verification results in evaluating the quality of NWP and their role in improving the accuracy of weather forecast results,both subjectively and objectively.Furthermore,it introduces recent updates and developments in MODE verification methods.These include the comprehensive evaluation index MODE Composite Score(MCS),which considers the mismatched attributes of objects,three-dimensional spatiotemporal object tracking using ellipsoids as targets,and the verification method,MODE Time Domain(MTD).Finally,it discusses the MODE verification method's applicability,advantages,and limitations while considering its future development direction and application prospects.The purpose of this study is to provide references for better application and diagnosis of NWP performance using the MODE method.