近40年济南南部山区土地利用/覆被的变化特征及影响因素研究

Characteristics and influencing factors of land use/cover change in southern mountainous area of Jinan in recent 40 years.

基于济南南部山区1980、1995、2005、2010、2015、2020年6期土地利用/覆被数据,结合土地利用/覆被变化的转移矩阵、单一动态度和综合动态度等指标,研究近40年济南南部山区土地利用/覆被的时空演变特征,采用主成分分析法,探究了研究区土地利用变化的影响因素。结果表明:南部山区的主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地和草地,其占比为90%左右,林地、草地主要分布在上游河源区及海拔较大的中部地区,城乡用地及耕地主要分布在河流两岸及下游地区;1980—2010年,由于经济社会发展以及城市扩张,耕地逐渐减少,林地、草地、水域有略微的减少,且基本转化为城乡用地,城乡用地逐渐从下游向上游河源地区扩展,其中,2005—2010年各土地利用类型变化最为剧烈,其综合动态度为0.49%;2010年以来,南部山区禁止一切与水源保护、生态保护无关的建设活动。2010—2015年,只有水域面积存在明显变化。2015—2020年各土地利用类型基本保持稳定,城市扩张速度得到了减缓。经济社会发展是引起城市快速扩张的重要原因,积极的保护政策有利于南部山区生态格局的优化和生态环境改善。

Based on the land use/cover data in 1980,1995,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 in the southern mountainous area of Jinan,the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamic change of land use/cover in the region were analyzed by combining the transfer matrix,single dynamic degree and comprehensive dynamic degree of land use/cover change in this study.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover in the southern mountainous area of Jinan in the past 40 years were studied.The principal component analysis method was used to explore the influencing factors of land use change in the study area.The results show that the main land types in the southern mountainous area are cultivated land,forest land and grassland,accounting for about 90%.Forest land and grassland are mainly distributed in the upstream river source area and the central area with higher altitude.Town and country land and cultivated land are mainly distributed on both sides of the river and downstream areas.From 1980 to 2010,due to economic and social development and urban expansion.The farmland gradually decreased.The forest land,grassland and water area have a slight decrease,and are basically converted into town and country land.Town and country land gradually expands from the downstream to the upstream river source area.Among them,from 2005 to 2010,the urban expansion was the fastest,and the land use types changed the most dramatically,with a comprehensive dynamic degree of 0.49%.Since 2010,all construction activities unrelated to water and ecological protection have been banned in the southern mountains.From 2010 to 2015,only the water area changed significantly.The speed of urban expansion had been slowed down,and the land use types remained basically stable from 2015 to 2020.The development of economy and society is an important reason for the rapid expansion of the city,and the active protection policies are conducive to the optimization of the ecological pattern and the improvement of the ecological environment in the southern mountainous areas.