基于BioMod2组合模型下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适宜生境分布变化研究

Variation of suitable habitat distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)in Yunnan based on BioMod2 combination model

【目的】研究气候变化背景下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的生境分布变化,旨在为农业部门开展草地贪夜蛾的防控和监测提供科学参考。【方法】通过系统收集草地贪夜蛾在云南省的分布点,并结合野外调查数据,利用BioMod2组合模型和ArcGIS 10.7,模拟草地贪夜蛾在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在生境分布变化。【结果】将9种物种分布模型进行组合,得到组合模型AUC、TSS和Kappa均值分别为0.994、0.980和0.943,其中,广义线性模型(GBM)、广义增强模型(GLM)、随机森林(RF)和人工神经元网络(ANN)是预测草地贪夜蛾生境分布的最优模型,表现最差的模型是表面分布区分室模型(SRE),未能通过模型精度检验。影响草地贪夜蛾分布的4个重要环境变量因子为坡度、海拔、年均气温和最高气温。当前时期草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适生生境面积为32.94万km2,占云南省总面积的83.61%。在未来气候模拟条件下,适生区面积扩张,尤其是低适生区和高适生区面积明显扩张,扩张均值分别为27.84%和12.80%;非适生区和中适生区面积减少,下降均值分别为19.69%和32.92%。【结论】基于气候变化大背景下的预测结果显示,草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适生区面积明显扩张,非适生区面积收缩,适生区有向高海拔和高纬度地区扩散的趋势,气候变化导致虫害的风险增大,应密切监控虫灾严重区域及新发地的虫情发展。

【Objective】Prediction of habitat distribution change of Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)in Yunnan un‐der the background of climate change,and it would provide scientific reference for agricultural departments to carry out the prevention and control of S.frugiperda and monitoring.【Method】By systematically collecting the distribution points of S.frugiperda in Yunnan,combined with field survey data,then the BioMod2 combination model and ArcGIS 10.7 was used to simulate the potential distribution change of S.frugiperda under current and future climatic conditions.【Result】The results showed that the 9 species distribution models were composed to obtain the mean values of AUC,TSS and Kappa of the combined model being 0.994,0.980 and 0.943 respectively,among which generalized linear model(GBM),generalized augmented model(GLM),random forest(RF),and artificial neural network(ANN)were the optimal models for predicting the habitat distribution of S.frugiperda.The worst performing model was surface distribu‐tion division room model(SRE),which failed the model accuracy test.The four most important environmental variables affecting S.frugiperda were slope,altitude,annual mean temperature and max temperature of warmest month.In the cur‐rent period,the suitable area for S.frugiperda was 329400 km2,accounting for 83.61%of the total area of Yunnan.Under the conditions of future climate simulation,the suitable area had a relatively obvious expansion trend,especially the low and high suitable areas expanded greatly,with an average expansion of 27.84%and 12.80%respectively,while the un‐suitable and medium suitable areas decreased,the mean declines were 19.69%and 32.92%respectively.【Conclusion】Pre‐dictions based on future climate change show that the potential suitable areas for S.frugiperda in Yunnan has obviously ex‐panded,and there is a trend of spreading to the high latitude and altitude areas.The results suggest that the climate change may result in the risk of continuous spread and harm increasing.In particular,close attention should be paid to the deve-lopment of S.frugiperda situation in the severely affected areas and newly affected areas.