不同情景下乌鲁木齐河流域土地利用动态模拟研究

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use in Urumqi River Basin under Different Scenarios

收集2000、2010、2020年乌鲁木齐河流域土地利用/覆被变化等数据,通过多评价准则(MCE)的元胞自动机(CA)和马尔可夫链(Markov)模型,对2020年土地利用变化进行模拟,预测结果与实际解译结果对比,各土地利用类型的面积预测精度达到82%以上,空间格局kappa系数平均值为81.57,表明预测结果可信。在此基础上,在不同场景下对2030年的土地利用空间格局进行模拟,结果表明,在趋势发展情景下,耕地、草地面积呈减少趋势,分别为15.1%和5.22%,建设用地、未利用地面积增幅较大,分别为26.09%和21.15%,表明按照当前城市扩张速度和产业结构布局方式发展,生态用地与建设用地需求的矛盾将日益突出,生态环境面临巨大挑战。在生态优先情景下,建设用地面积增幅减缓至18.03%,耕地、林地、水域面积呈上升趋势,分别为10.26%、2.36%和11.11%,草地面积下降趋势减缓至3.55%,表明城市快速扩张得到遏制,耕地得到保护,林地、草地能够发挥更大的生态调节作用,水源的涵养能力有所提升,土地利用结构变化趋于均衡。

The data of land use/cover change in Urumqi River basin in 2000,2010 and 2020 were collected,and the land use change in 2020 was simulated through the cellular automata(CA)and Markov chain models of multiple evaluation criteria(MCE).Compared with the actual interpretation results,the prediction accuracy of the area of each land use type reached more than 82%,and the average value of the spatial pattem kappa coefficient was 81.57,indicating that the prediction results were reliable.On this basis,the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 is simulated under different scenarios.The results show that under the trend development scenario,the areas of cultivated land and grassland are decreasing,15.1%and 5.22%respectively,and the areas of construction land and unused land are increasing significantly,26.09%and 21.15%respectively,indicating that the contradiction between ecological land and construction land demand will become increasingly prominent according to the current urban expansion speed and industrial structure layout,the ecological environment is facing great challenges.Under the ecological priority scenario,the growth of construction land area slowed down to 18.03%,the area of cultivated land,forest land and water area showed an upward trend of 10.26%,2.36%and 11.11%,respectively,and the decline of grassland area slowed down to 3.55%,indicating that the rapid expansion of cities has been curbed,cultivated land has been protected,forest land and grassland can play a greater role in ecological regulation,water conservation capacity has been improved,and the change of land use structure is more balanced.