景泰县耕地“非粮化”时空分异及其影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land"Non-grain"Conversion in Jingtai County

耕地“非粮化”对我国粮食安全产生了较大的威胁,研究耕地“非粮化”时空分异及其影响因素,对因地制宜严控耕地“非粮化”具有重要的意义,本文基于空间自相关模型和多元线性回归分析探究景泰县2010年和2019年耕地“非粮化”的时空分异特征和影响因素。结果表明,(1)景泰县“非粮化”程度由低度非粮化为主转向中度和较高度“非粮化”为主,空间上呈现出“北高南低”的格局,且高度“非粮化”区域逐渐由东北部向西北部转移。(2)景泰县耕地“非粮化”的空间分布具有显著正相关性,且聚集效应日益明显。(3)农村居民人均纯收入、非农就业比例、单位面积农机总动力、年降水量对景泰县耕地“非粮化”程度具有显著影响,其影响程度依次递减。研究结果有助于识别景泰县耕地“非粮化”水平的时空特征,为今后实行“非粮化”分区差异管控提供参考。

Arable land of plants grown for food security in our country has a larger threat,research cultivated plants grown in time and space differentiation and its influencing factors,to rein in the light of local conditions of cultivated land is of great importance to the"non-staple",this article is based on the spatial autocorrelation model and multiple linear regression analysis to explore the jingtai county in 2010 and 2019,the cultivated land plants grown in time and space diferentiation characteristics and influence factors.The results showed that,(1)the degrainization degree in Jingtai County changed from low degrainization to moderate degrainization and high degrainization,showing a spatial paterm of"high in the north and low in the south",and the high degrainization area gradually shifted from the northeast to the northwest,and the degrainization type changed from oil to Chinese medicinal materials.(2)The spatial distribution of"non-grain"culivated land in Jingtai County has a significant positive correlation,and the aggregation effect is increasingly obvious.(3)The per capita net income of rural residents,the proportion of"non-agricultural"employment,the total power of agricultural machinery per unit area,and the anual precipitation had significant effects on the"non-grain degree of farmland in Jingtai County,and the effects decreased successively.The results are helpful to identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land degrainization level in Jingtai County,and provide a reference for implementing the zoning difference control of degrainization in the future.