基于结构方程模型的公轨合建桥施工安全风险评估

Safety Risk Assessment of Highway and Rail Traffic Building Jointly Bridge Based on Structural Equation Model

依托新建西安公轨合建10号线一期工程跨越泾渭河段与西阎快速路公铁两用桥项目,采用WBS-RBS法识别施工风险源;利用耦合度模型对风险因素进行了单、双风险耦合度计算;通过文献调研将公轨合建项目风险划分为人员素质、机材状态和作业环境等7大类,共24小类,并利用结构方程模型对施工风险模型进行了验证。耦合性分析结果表明,人员风险因素和机械设备材料风险因素最易与其他风险因素发生耦合。结构方程模型结果表明,施工风险因素按照相关系数由大到小排序为:安全执行力>管理制度>安全控制力>作业环境>桥梁结构>机材状态>人员素质。研究结果表明,公轨合建项目须加强人员安全管理,并重视对施工防护体系的设计,桥梁结构对安全风险的降低作用也将产生显著效果。

Based on the construction of the first Phase of the line 10 project of Xi’an highway and rail traffic building jointly,which crosses the Jingwei River section and dual-use bridge project of the Xiyan Expressway,the WBS-RBS method was used to identify construction risk sources;The coupling degree model was used to calculate the single and double risk coupling degrees of risk factors;Through literature research,the risks of public rail joint construction projects were divided into 7 categories of personnel quality,machinery and material status,and operating environment etc.and total 24 subcategories.The construction risk model was verified by the structural equation model.The coupling analysis results indicate that personnel risk factor and mechanical equipment material risk factor are most likely to couple with other risk factors.The results of the structural equation model indicate that the construction risk factors are ranked in descending order of correlation coefficients is safety execution force>management system>safety control force>working environment>bridge structure>machinery and material status>personnel quality.The results indicate that personnel safety management should be strengthened and the design of construction protective systems be focused on in highway and rail traffic building jointly project.The bridge structure will also have a significant reducing effect on safety risks.