埃尔多安时期土耳其的民粹主义政治实践及后果

An Assessment of Populist Politics in Turkey and its Effects

土耳其长期奉行新自由主义政策,导致该国深陷治理危机,经济停滞和贫富分化直接威胁政局稳定。在此背景下,土耳其政府转而诉诸民粹主义以摆脱困境:首先,制造“我们与他们”对立以强化个人集权;其次,向底层民众发放福利以笼络人心;再次,意识形态转向传统宗教以争取多数;最后,对外进行积极扩张,借以转移国内矛盾。这些政策缓和了治理危机,但中长期看,民粹主义政策并不能解决既存的治理危机。一则,政治高压使错误政策难以纠正;二则,惠民政策未能根本缓解贫富悬殊;三则,回归宗教助长新自由主义;四则,对外扩张导致国力透支。民粹主义最大的问题就是“言大于行”,无力或不愿触动阻碍民生幸福的根本性问题,其提供的解决方案短期看效果卓著,长远看却无法实现可持续发展,甚至使国家陷入更加深重的灾难。

Turkey's long-term pursuit of neoliberal policies has led to a deep governance crisis in the country,with economic stagnation and the gap between the rich and the poor directly threatening political stability.Against this backdrop,the Turkish government has turned to populism to get out of trouble.First,it has created an“us versus them”dichotomy to strengthen autocracy.Second,it has distributed welfare benefits to the underclass to win their hearts.Third,it has shifted its ideology to traditional religions to please the majority.Fourth,it has pursued an active expansionary policy abroad as a way to divert domestic conflicts.These policies have seemed to mitigate the governance crisis,but in the medium and long term,populist policies cannot solve the existing governance crisis.Firstly,political coercion makes it difficult to correct wrong policies.Secondly,the policy of benefiting the people has failed to fundamentally alleviate the disparity between the rich and the poor.Thirdly,the return to religion encourages neoliberalism.Fourthly,external expansion leads to national overdraft.The biggest problem with populism is that it“speaks louder than it acts”,as it is unable or unwilling to touch the fundamental problems that hinder people's well-being,and the solutions it provides are effective in the short term,but cannot achieve sustainable development in the long run,thus plunging the country into deeper predicament instead.