摆荡、互惠与要价:危地马拉对台关系演变与影响因素探析

Dynamics and Evolution of Guatemala's Taiwan Policy(1949-2023)

本文关注和探讨了1949年以来危地马拉对台关系历史演变及运作策略。通过甄别危地马拉国内政治精英权力转移与来自美国的外部风险两大要素,本文以1971年中国台湾当局失去联合国席位与1996年危地马拉内战结束作为关键节点,详细梳理危地马拉对台关系三大阶段特征及运作策略:从疏离中国台湾到重启接触的摆荡阶段(1949-1970)以对台“外交承认”换取经济援助的互惠阶段(1971-1996)以及充分掌握对台交往主动权后的强势要价阶段(1997至今),并指出随着危国内部政党轮替、左翼政治精英对美国离心倾向加大,危地马拉对台政策亦呈现出波动迹象。

This paper explores the driving forces and strategies shaping Guatemala's Taiwan policy,with a focus on Guatemala's distinctive standing as one of the last Central American allies.It identifies two core elements influencing Guatemala's diplomatic strategies towards Taiwan:the internal power dynamics among its political elites and external pressures stemming from the United States.The paper dissects Guatemala's evolving relationship with Taiwan into three eras,using two pivotal events as demarcations:Taiwan's ousting from the United Nations in 1971 and the end of Guatemala's civil war in 1996.These periods are characterized as initial diplomatic volatility(1940-1970),a stage of mutual benefits(1971-1996),and an era of strategic bargaining with Taiwan(1997-present).Against the backdrop of the declining influence of Guatemala's military elite and the reduced impact of the US,Guatemala's Taiwan policy exhibits significant instability,signaling a potential forthcoming shift in the near future.