外部需求与企业上游供应链调整:稳链保供还是扩链强链

External Demand and Upstream Supply Chain Adjustment:Supply Stabilisation or Chain Expansion and Strengthening

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,上游供应链不仅需要专业高效,还应该稳定可控。本文基于嵌入全球价值链企业的上下游关联,研究下游外部需求扩张对中国企业上游供应链布局的影响及其形成机理。研究发现:当嵌入全球价值链企业面临下游外部需求扩张时,企业出于“稳链保供”的动机,会构建更为稳定的上游供应链,且主要表现为中间品进口来源地多元化策略。同时,外需扩张带来创新激励,并通过增加中间品进口产品种类缓解创新的技术约束和成本约束,即“以开放促创新”实现“扩链强链”。此外,当面临外需扩张时,企业全球价值链位置越高,创新激励越强,越倾向于“扩链强链”;而价值链位置越低的企业,“稳链保供”动机越强,且会通过国内价值链对全球价值链的战略替代性进一步降低海外供应链风险。本文从推进高水平对外开放、提高上游供应链稳定性和安全水平、实现价值链升级和完善国内价值链体系等方面提出了政策启示。

The world is experiencing unprecedented transformation,requiring the upstream supply chain to not only be highly specialised and efficient,but also reliable and controllable.Drawing on the upstream and downstream corporate relationships inherent in the global value chain(GVC),this paper investigates the effect of downstream external demand expansion on the upstream supply chain layout of Chinese firms and its formation mechanism.Research reveals that firms integrated into the GVC build more stable upstream supply chains to ensure stable supply in the face of expanding downstream external demand.Meanwhile,firms’incentive to innovate increases as the market expands,and the range of imported intermediate goods is enlarged to alleviate the technical and cost constraints that hinder innovation.Additional study demonstrates that the higher the firm’s position in the GVC,the greater the incentive to expand and strengthen the chain,while the lower the firm’s position in the GVC,the stronger the incentive to stabilise the chain.Finally,the study offers policy suggestions aimed at enhancing openness,stabilising the upstream supply chain,upgrading the GVC and optimising the domestic value chain(DVC).