性别比失衡是否会削弱男孩偏好?

Does Sex Ratio Imbalance Mitigate Son Preference?

人口长期均衡发展是国家的重大战略要求,人口性别结构的均衡则是其关键内涵之一。而我国长期以来存在着强烈的男孩偏好,这种传统观念是否会因婚姻市场的竞争压力而发生改变?本文旨在研究当前性别结构失衡所导致的婚姻挤压对我国适龄生育主体的生育性别偏好的重塑效应。文章基于婚姻市场供需视角、婚姻挤压理论和生育成本收益权衡理论,利用全国1%人口抽样调查数据和中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据定量分析地区性别比对个体男孩生育偏好的影响。实证结果表明:城市层面100名女性人口相对应的男性人口每增加10人,个体具有男孩偏好的概率平均下降2.24%,并且这一结果在剔除无生育意愿样本、替换解释变量与被解释变量、控制地区初始男孩偏好以及使用PSM模型后依旧稳健。在机制分析部分,文章首先考察了性别比对个体初婚年龄的影响,发现无论是在农村还是城市,性别比上升均显著推迟了男性初婚年龄,而对女性初婚年龄无影响。研究进一步发现:对于婚姻支付压力越大、承受婚姻支付能力越低的个体,性别比上升对其男孩偏好的负向影响程度更大且更显著。这些结果显示性别比上升增加了男性在婚姻市场的竞争压力,男性及其家庭需要承担更高的婚姻支付以提高自身婚配竞争力,从而导致生养男孩的潜在成本上升,并因此抑制了男孩偏好。按照个体和地区特征进行的异质性分析,表明性别比上升对低年龄段、低受教育程度、已有多个儿子和始终为非农户口的人群以及西部地区个体的男孩偏好抑制作用更强。人口性别比存在一种类似生物学的“负反馈调节机制”,但这种所谓“自然合理”的回归通常周期长且通过提高婚姻支付来实现,背后隐藏的是年轻人及其家庭对于高额结婚成本的负担,不仅不利于居民生活幸福感的提升,还会对宏观经济产生负面影响,如推高房价、扭曲储蓄行为、抑制消费、降低生育率等。因而,政府应积极主动采取措施,从源头上弱化重男轻女的传统观念,促进人口性别比回归正常的区间。

The long-term balanced development of the population is a major national strategic requirement in China,and the balanced gender structure of the population is one of its key implications.However,there has long been a strong preference for boys in China.Will this traditional concept change due to the competi‐tive pressure in the marriage market?This paper aims to study the reshaping effect of marital squeeze caused by the current sex ratio imbalance on the gender preference of the reproductive population in China.Specifically,based on the perspectives of marriage market supply and demand,marital squeeze theory,and the cost-benefit trade-off theory of fertility,the paper utilizes data from the National 1%Population Sample Survey and the China Labor Dynamics Survey(CLDS)to quantitatively study the impact of regional gender ratios on individual preferences for male offspring.Empirical results show that for every increase of 10 males corresponding to 100 females at the urban level,the probability of individuals having a preference for boys decreases by an average of 2.24%.This result remains robust after excluding samples with no fertility intentions,replacing explanatory and response variables,controlling for initial male preferences in the region,and using the Propensity Score Matching(PSM)model.In the mechanism analysis section,the paper first explores the impact of the sex ratio on individuals’age at first marriage,discovering that regardless of whether in rural or urban areas,an increase in the sex ratio significantly delays men’s age at first marriage,while having no impact on women’s.Furthermore,the paper uncovers that for individu‐als facing greater pressure and lower affordability in terms of marriage payments,the negative influence of a rising sex ratio on their preference for boys is more pronounced and significant.These findings suggest that the increased sex ratio heightens men’s competitive pressure in the marriage market,neces‐sitating higher marriage payments for men and their families to enhance their competitiveness,thereby leading to a potential increase in the cost of rearing boys and ultimately suppressing the preference for boys.Heterogeneity analysis,conducted based on individual and regional characteristics,reveals that the inhibitory effect of a rising sex ratio on the preference for male offspring is stronger among individuals in lower age groups,with lower educational attainment,those who have multiple sons,and those who have always been non-agricultural household registrants,as well as individuals in western regions.The results of the paper indicate that there is a biological-like“negative feedback mechanism”in population sex ratios,but this so-called“natural rational”regression cycle is usually long and achieved by increasing marriage payments.Behind this is the burden of high marriage costs on young people and their families,which not only hinders the improvement of residents’happiness but also has negative effects on the mac‐roeconomy,such as pushing up housing prices,distorting savings behavior,inhibiting consumption,and reducing fertility rates.Therefore,the government should actively take measures to weaken the traditional concept of favoring boys over girls at the source and promote the return of population sex ratios to a normal range.