东北三省人口流出空间格局及影响机制

Spatial Pattern of Out-Migrant and Its Impact Mechanism in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China

在东北振兴战略实施20周年之际,东北三省人口流失问题亟待进一步梳理和总结。本文根据2005-2020年各省人口普查以及抽样调查数据,运用迁移网络与人口集聚度进一步细化研究主题的空间尺度并明确东北三省人口流出空间格局。本文基于人力资本迁移理论、新古典微观迁移理论与新空间经济学等构建了东北三省人口外流理论框架,并利用空间计量模型从实证角度验证经济与地方品质因素对东北三省流出人口空间格局的影响。结果表明:东北三省人口流出强度由北向南递减,区域内人口流动围绕哈长城市群与辽中南城市群呈现“一轴”的空间格局;东北三省区域外人口流出空间格局由“块状聚集”向“多点化聚集”转变,一级中心城市分布于京津地区,二级中心城市主要分布于青岛市、上海市、杭州市以及深圳市,三级中心城市广泛分布于山东半岛、长三角城市群与成都市、郑州市、西安市等中西部省会城市;密集区平均以7.76%的城市面积集聚了80.59%的东北三省流出人口,东部沿海城市基本被均值区以及密集区覆盖,中部地区的密集区呈现“点状分布”的格局,西部地区基本被稀疏区覆盖,其中深圳市、天津市、上海市与厦门市的东北三省流出人口集聚度水平显著高于全国其他城市;由于东北三省在产业转型过程中存在结构性失业问题,东北三省区域外流出人口以就业机会为核心驱动力,伴随着我国社会主要矛盾转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾,迁入地的消费服务与基础设施正逐步吸引东北三省人口流入,使东北三省流出人口在经济与地方品质因素的多重作用下向区域外发达地区迁移并呈现空间聚集特征;东北三省人口流出的影响机制在北方与南方城市具有异质性,流向北方城市的人口在地理学第一定律的约束下以就业机会为基础寻求生活成本最小化,流向南方城市的人口已经突破距离的限制并在就业机会的基础上追求人力资本最大化与消费服务多样化。从另一角度佐证,东北三省吸纳就业和满足多元消费需求的能力不足是造成人口流失的主要原因。

On the occasion of the twentieth anniversary of the implementation of the revitalization strategy in Northeast China,the issue of population loss in the three northeastern provinces urgently requires further clarification and summarization.Drawing from population censuses and sampling survey data from 2005 to 2020,utilizing migration networks and population agglomeration to refine the spatial scale of the research topic and clearly delineate the spatial pattern of population outflow in the three northeastern provinces.Based on theories such as human capital and migration theory,neoclassical micro migration theory,and new economic geography,a theoretical framework for out migration in the three northeastern provinces was constructed.Employing spatial econometric models,empirical evidence was used to verify the influence of economic and local quality factors on the spatial pattern of out-migrant from the three northeastern prov‐inces.The results indicate:the intensity of population outflow in the three northeastern provinces decreases from north to south,with intra-regional population movements revolving around the Harbin-Changchun megalopolis and the Liaozhongnan city groups exhibiting a“one-axis”spatial pattern;The spatial pattern of out-migrant from the northeastern provinces has transitioned from“block agglomeration”to“multi-point agglomeration”,with primary central cities located in the Beijing-Tianjin region,secondary central cities mainly distributed in Qingdao,Shanghai,Hangzhou,and Shenzhen,and tertiary central cities widely dis‐persed in the Shandong Peninsula,the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,and cities in central and western provincial capitals such as Chengdu,Zhengzhou,and Xi’an;The dense areas,covering an average of 7.76%of urban areas,have concentrated 80.59%of the outflow population from the three northeastern provinces,with eastern coastal cities predominantly covered by mean areas and dense areas,central regions exhibiting a“point distribution”pattern of dense areas,and western regions largely covered by sparse areas,where the concentration levels of out-migrant from the northeastern provinces in Shenzhen,Tianjin,Shanghai,and Xiamen are significantly higher than in other cities nationwide;Due to structural unemployment issues in the industrial transformation process in the three northeastern provinces,the out-migrant is primarily driven by employment opportunities;Alongside China’s main social contradictions transforming into the increasing desire for a better life and the contradictions between imbalanced and inadequate development,the in-migrant into destinations gradually attracts the out-migrant from the northeastern provinces through consumption services and infrastructure,leading the people to migrate to developed regions outside the region under the multiple influences of economic and local quality factors and exhibiting spatial agglomera‐tion characteristics;The impact mechanisms of out-migrant from the northeastern provinces differ between northern and southern cities,with migrant moving to northern cities seeking to minimize living costs based on employment opportunities under the constraint of the first law of geography,while migrant moving to southern cities have surpassed distance limitations,pursuing maximization of human capital and diversifi‐cation of consumption services on the basis of employment opportunities.In another perspective,the insuf‐ficient capacity of the three northeastern provinces to absorb employment and meet diverse consumption demands is a key factor causing out-migration.From another perspective,this article proves that the lack of ability to absorb employment and meet diversified consumption needs in the three northeastern provinces is the main cause of population loss.