“80后”劳动力的失业风险及其影响因素研究

A Study on the Unemployment Risk and Influencing Factors of the“80s Generation”Labor Force

基于中国综合社会调查四期调查数据构建的混合截面数据,文章实证分析了“80后”劳动力的失业风险及其影响因素,并采用变量变换和倾向值匹配(PSM)检验模型估计结果的稳健性。研究发现,相对于全国平均水平而言,“80后”劳动力的失业风险较低且保持稳定态势。有失业风险的“80后”劳动力所占比例平均只有22.0%,不同调查年份所获得的“80后”劳动力失业风险的波动较小。受教育程度、工作经验与技能培训对“80后”劳动力的失业风险均有显著的影响,受教育程度越高、工作经验越多、参加职业技能培训的“80后”劳动力其失业风险越低。“80后”劳动力的失业风险,在性别、年龄、婚姻状况、是否签订劳动合同和是否参加失业保险的群体之间,呈现出显著的异质性特点。基于研究发现,文章提出了针对性政策建议和启示。

Based on the mixed cross-section data of the fourth phase of the China General Social Survey,this paper empirically-analyzes the unemployment risk and influencing factors of the post-80s labor force,and uses variable transformation and propensity value matching(PSM)to test the robustness of the estimated results.The study found that compared with the national average,the unemployment risk of the post-80s labor force is low and stable.The proportion of the post-80s labor force at risk of unemployment is only 22.0%on average,and the fluctuation of the unemployment risk of the post-80s labor force in different survey years is small.Education level,work experience and skill training have a significant impact on the unemployment risk of the post-80s labor force.The higher the education level,the more work experience and the participation in vocational skills training,the lower the unemployment risk of the post-80s labor force.The unemployment risk of the post-80s labor force shows significant heterogeneity among the groups of gender,age,marital status,whether to sign labor contract and whether to participate in unemployment insurance.Based on the research findings,the paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations and inspirations.