长三角绿色低碳循环发展的创新驱动机理及效应识别

Innovation Driving Mechanism and Effect Identification of Green and Low-carbon Circular Development in Yangtze River Delta

探究绿色技术创新如何驱动长三角绿色低碳循环发展,有利于加快实现长三角高质量一体化发展目标。基于多维指标体系和主成分分析方法,测度长三角41个城市绿色低碳循环发展指数,运用广义最小二乘法、空间面板和门槛模型,实证检验绿色技术创新对长三角绿色低碳循环发展的驱动机理及其效应,研究发现:(1)从基准回归结果看,绿色技术创新显著促进长三角绿色低碳循环发展,且存在区域异质性。产业结构升级、政府竞争和人力资本水平在绿色技术创新对长三角绿色低碳循环发展的影响中发挥正向调节作用。(2)从空间效应来看,绿色技术创新对长三角绿色低碳循环发展存在正向空间相关和空间溢出效应。(3)从门槛效应来看,随着金融发展水平的提升,绿色技术创新对长三角绿色低碳循环发展的促进作用不断增强。以上结论,对于加快长三角绿色低碳循环发展和一体化进程,具有重要的政策启示。

Exploring how green technology innovation drives the green and low-carbon circular development of the Yangtze River Delta is conducive to accelerating the realization of the high-quality integrated development goal of the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the multi-dimensional index system and principal component analysis method,the green and low-carbon circular development index of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta was measured.The generalized least square method,spatial panel and threshold model were used to empirically test the driving mechanism and effect of green technology innovation on the green and low-carbon circular development of the Yangtze River Delta.The findings were as follows:(1)From the perspective of benchmark regression,green technology innovation significantly promoted the green and low-carbon circular development of the Yangtze River Delta,and there was regional heterogeneity.The upgrading of industrial structure,government competition and human capital played a positive moderating role in the impact of green technology innovation on the green and low-carbon circular development.(2)From the perspective of spatial effect,green technology innovation had positive spatial correlation and spatial spillover effect on the green and low-carbon circular development.(3)From the perspective of threshold effect,with the improvement of the financial development,the promoting role of green technology innovation on the green and low-carbon circular development of the Yangtze River Delta was constantly enhanced.The above conclusions had important policy implications for accelerating the green and low-carbon circular development and integration process of the Yangtze River Delta.