江苏省耕地非粮化时空格局演变及驱动因素分析

Analysis on the Evolution of Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Non-grain Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province from 1996 to 2020

研究江苏省耕地非粮化时空特征及其驱动因素,为保护耕地和保障粮食安全的政策制定提供参考。基于耕地非粮化的影响机制解析,选择江苏省作为研究区域,分析1996~2020年县域耕地非粮化时空格局演变及其驱动机制,并采用主成分分析法研究驱动机制及其区域分异。结果表明:(1)江苏省耕地非粮化面积和比率呈现倒“U”型的变化趋势,面积由2322.49千hm2上升到2704.78千hm2后降至2072.76千hm2,比率由19.28%上升至35.46%后降至27.72%;(2)全省县域耕地非粮化率分布具有显著空间集聚特征,整体呈现苏南的高高聚集和苏中、苏北的低低聚集为主,前期为苏北低-近沪地区高,后期主要呈现苏中低-苏南高聚集格局;(3)基于长时序面板数据分析发现,地均GDP和城乡居民可支配收入比与耕地非粮化率呈显著正相关,老龄化程度与非粮化率呈显著负相关关系;(4)经济欠发达地区更容易受社会经济因子影响,经济较发达地区非粮化更易受经营者生产决策影响,资源禀赋较差地区更倾向于非粮化种植。

This paper studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of non-grain cultivated land and the driving factors in Jiangsu Province,in order to provide reference for non-grain cultivated land management.This study took Jiangsu Province,a major grain producing area and a rapidly urbanizing area,as the study area.The principal component analysis method was used to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of non-grain cultivated land in the county from 1996 to 2020.The driving mechanism and the regional differences of the driving force were explored.The results showed that:(1)the area and ratio of non-grain cultivated land in Jiangsu Province showed an inverted"U"-shaped trend,with the area increasing from 2322.49 to 2704.78 thousand hectares and then decreasing to 2072.76 thousand hectares.The ratio increased from 19.28%to 35.46%and then decreased to 27.72%.(2)The distribution of non-grain cultivated land in counties across the province had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,with the overall high and high aggregation in Southern Jiangsu and the low and low aggregation in Central and Northern Jiangsu dominating,the low in Northern Jiangsu and the high in the near-Shanghai area in the early stage,and the low in Central Jiangsu and the high in Southern Jiangsu in the late stage.(3)Based on the long time-series panel data analysis,it was found that per capita GDP and disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents were significantly positively correlated with the non-grain cultivated land rate,and the aging degree was significantly negatively correlated with the non-grain cultivated land rate.(4)Less economically developed regions were more likely to be affected by economic development,non-grain cultivated land in more economically developed regions was more likely to be affected by operators'production decisions.The regions with poorer resource endowment were more inclined to non-grain cultivated land.