基于模糊层次分析法的电力安全风险评估方法研究

Power Safety Risk Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

电力安全风险评估能够识别可能存在的潜在风险和威胁,为此研究基于模糊层次分析法的电力安全风险评估方法。电力网络的安全风险评估采用模糊层次分析法时,考虑网络中节点和边的安全风险以及它们在拓扑结构和业务中的重要程度。评估模型包含事件的损失和事件发生可能性2个评价因素,运用模糊语言变量描述元素间的关系,并构造判断矩阵进行量化分析。电力网络中单元安全风险评估方法由单元风险度、单元重要度和单元失效概率组成,单元拓扑重要度衡量单元失效对通信网带来的损失,以此实现电力安全风险评估。实验结果表明所提方法的电力安全风险评估精度最高达到97%,评估时间最短仅为9 ms,说明所提方法评估性能高、实用性强。

The power safety risk assessment can identify potential risks and threats,therefore,this work studied a power safety risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.The safety risk assessment of power network adopted the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,considering safety risks of nodes and edges in the network,as well as their importance in topology and business.The evaluation model included two evaluation factors:loss of event and likelihood of event occurrence.Fuzzy language variables were used to describe inter-element relationship,and a judgment matrix was constructed for quantitative analysis.The unit security risk assessment method in power networks consisted of unit risk degree,unit importance degree,and unit failure probability.The unit topology importance degree measured losses caused by unit failure to the communication network,thereby achieving power safety risk assessment.The experimental results showed that the proposed method achieves the highest accuracy of safety risk assessment of 97%along with the lowest evaluation time of only 9 ms,indicating its satisfactory evaluation performance and practical applicability.