农村一二三产业融合能否促进农业绿色发展?——以长江经济带579个县域为例

Can integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries promote agricultural green development?A case study of 579 counties in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2006—2021年长江经济带579个县域的面板数据,采用固定效应模型、门槛模型探讨农村一二三产业融合对农业绿色发展的影响效应及非线性调节机制。研究表明:(1)研究期间,长江经济带县域农业绿色发展和农村一二三产业融合水平均呈波动上升趋势,并呈现“下游高、中游平、上游低”的空间分异格局。(2)长江经济带县域农村一二三产业融合能显著促进农业绿色发展,但影响效应存在区域异质性,表现为下游县域>中游县域>上游县域。(3)农村一二三产业融合对农业绿色发展的影响存在双门槛特征,在整体层面和中游县域呈“跃迁式”增长特征,在下游县域呈“U”型特征,在上游县域先呈边际效应递增再呈边际效应递减。农村一二三产业融合对农业绿色发展的影响存在产业升级的双门槛特征,在整体层面和上游县域、中游县域呈“跃迁式”增长特征,在下游县域呈“增长—缓冲—增长”特征。农村一二三产业融合对农业绿色发展的影响存在技术创新的双门槛特征,在整体层面和中游县域呈“跃迁式”增长特征,下游县域呈“增长—缓冲—增长”特征,上游县域不存在门槛效应。研究结果可为中国推动农业绿色发展提供决策参考,也为其他欠发达国家的农业绿色发展提供经验借鉴。

This research uses panel data of 579 counties in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)from 2006 to 2021 to explore the impacts and nonlinear adjustment mechanisms of integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries on agricultural green development using fixed-effects models and threshold models.The main conclusions show that:(1)During the study period,the level of agricultural green development and the integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries index in the counties of the YREB showed a fluctuating upward trend,with a spatial divergence pattern of downstream>midstream>upstream.(2)The integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries in the counties of the YREB can significantly promote the agricultural green development,but there is regional heterogeneity in the impact effect,manifested as downstream>midstream>upstream.(3)There is a doublethreshold in the impact of the integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries on agricultural green development.The whole region and midstream counties are characterized by a"leapfrog"growth.Downstream counties are characterized by a"U"-shaped pattern.Upstream counties show increasing marginal effects followed by decreasing marginal effects.The impact of the integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries on agricultural green development is characterized by the existence of a double-threshold for industrial upgrading.The whole region and midstream and upstream counties are characterized by a"leapfrog"growth.Downstream counties are characterized by a"growth-buffer-growth"pattern.The impact of the integration of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries on agricultural green development is characterized by the existence of a double-threshold for technological innovation.The whole regional midstream counties are characterized by a"leapfrog"growth.Downstream counties are characterized by a"growth-buffer-growth"pattern.There is no threshold effect in upstream counties.The results of the study can provide a reference for decision-making to promote agricultural green development in China,as well as lessons for agricultural green development in the remaining less developed countries.