基于PLUS和InVEST模型的乌鲁木齐市碳储量时空演变与预测

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Urumqi City based on PLUS and InVEST models

土地利用变化对陆地生态系统的碳储量变化有着重要影响,研究不同发展情景下陆地生态系用碳储量变化情况,有利于优化空间布局,协调土地利用与生态环境保护的关系。本研究结合PLUS和InVEST模型,通过多种驱动因素数据分析了2000—2020年乌鲁木齐市土地利用的变化特征,以此预测模拟2030年自然发展情景、生态保护优先情景和耕地保护优先情景下土地碳储量。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年乌鲁木齐市林地、水域、建设面积、未利用地数量增加,耕地、草地面积减少。(2)2030年,自然发展情景延续了以往发展模式,建设用地面积增幅为18.29%。生态保护优先情景下,建设用地的扩张速度得到有效控制,增幅已经减缓,为4.73%。耕地保护优先情景下耕地面积比自然发展情景下多了171 km^(2),耕地保护效果显著。(3)2000—2020年,碳储量呈下降趋势,共计减少8.5×10^(6)t。2030年自然发展情景下碳储量总量相较于2020年减少了4.065×10^(6)t,生态保护优先情景下比自然增长情景高7.519×10^(5)t,耕地保护优先情景比自然增长情景低1.979×10^(6)t。因此,在未来乌鲁木齐市发展规划中,应当落实耕地保护责任,控制建设用地向林地、草地等高碳密度用地的扩张,优化用地布局,提高区域碳储量水平。

Land use changes have an important impact on carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems,and studying carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems under different development scenarios is conducive to the optimization of spatial layout and coordination of the relationship between land use and ecological environmental protection.In this study,the PLUS and InVEST models were combined,and the characteristics of land use chang-es in Urumqi from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed using data from multiple drivers to predict and simulate the land carbon stock under the natural development scenario,ecological protection priority scenario,and cropland protec-tion priority scenario in 2030.Results show that from 2000 to 2020,the quantity of forest land,water area,con-struction area,and unused land increases,whereas the area of arable land and grassland decreases.In 2030,the natural development scenario continues the previous development pattern,and the increase in the area of construc-tion land is 18.29%.Under the ecological protection priority scenario,the expansion rate of construction land is effectively controlled,and the increase has slowed down to 4.73%.The area of arable land under the priority ara-ble land protection scenario is 171 km^(2) more than under the natural development scenario,and the effect of culti-vated land conservation is significant.From 2000 to 2020,and carbon stocks decrease by a total of 8.5×10^(6) t.The total carbon stock in 2030 under the natural growth scenario decreases by 4.065×10^(6) t compared to 2020.the eco-logical protection priority scenario is 7.519×10^(5) t higher than the natural growth scenario.the cropland protection priority scenario is 1.979×10^(6) t lower than the natural growth scenario.Therefore,in the future development plan of Urumqi City,the responsibility of protecting arable land should be implemented,and the expansion of con-struction land to high-carbon-density land such as forest land,grassland,and arable land should be controlled.Furthermore,the land use layout should be optimized to improve the level of regional carbon stock.