美国金融制裁对美元国际地位的影响

The Impact of US Financial Sanctions on the International Status of the US Dollar

2022年,美国加强对俄罗斯制裁,尤其是限制俄罗斯央行外汇资产流动等举措,将金融管理权当战略筹码使用,以图降低美元资产的吸引力。但是实际上,此举短期内没有加速美元价值储藏作用的衰减,2022—2023年美元在全球外汇储备中占比不降反升。其原因在于,尽管美国加大金融制裁使得各国经济成本上升,但那些承认美国地缘政治角色的国家进一步接受美元的国际角色,短期内愿意接受美元的“安全溢价”,对美元构成利好,令其作为外汇储备的吸引力上升。同时,外汇储备“去美元化”尚未形成规模效应,对美元地位的冲击作用不足。长期看,随着经济与安全的约束条件发生变化,接受美元国际角色的国家和寻求“去美元化”的国家选择也可能发生变化,或引发四种可能情景:美元主导地位不受威胁、国际货币体系“阵营化”、国际货币体系“碎片化”以及美元主导地位的跌落,本文倾向最后一种前景可能性比较大。

To analyze the influence of the abuse of financial sanctions by the United States on the international status of the dollar,it is necessary to answer a question that exceeds expectations in reality:the United States restrictions on the foreign exchange flow of the Russian Central bank and other measures,the use of financial management power as a strategic chip will inevitably reduce the attractiveness of dollar assets.Why does this move not substantially accelerate the process of de-dollarization of the world,especially the US dollar reserves in the global international currency reserves rather than decline in status?From the perspective of international security,countries and actors that feel insecure because of US financial sanctions have different currency choices from those that feel safer because of US financial sanctions.On the one hand,US financial sanctions strengthen the security of the sanctioning coalition,reinforcing the security of countries that do not implement the sanctions but largely agree with their targets.Despite the increased economic costs of the US,these countries are willing to accept the"safety premium"of the US dollar for geopolitical reasons.On the other hand,the aggressive use of financial sanctions by the United States makes more countries fear that their behavior will be sanctioned,thus increasing the motivation of de-dollarization,which may weaken the hegemony of the dollar.In the short term,geopolitical logic has replaced international economic logic as the main driving force for the change in the status of the US dollar's global foreign exchange reserves,which is positive for the US dollar and makes it more attractive as a foreign exchange reserve.However,de-dollarization has not yet formed economies of scale,and its impact on the status of the dollar is insufficient.In the long run,as economic and security constraints change,the choices of countries that accept the international role of the dollar and those that seek to de-dollarize may also change.The author discusses four possible scenarios:the dominance of the dollar is not threatened,the international monetary system has become camp-oriented,the international monetary system is fragmented,and the dominance of the dollar falls.