产业政策与企业生产率——来自《中国制造2025》颁布的准自然实验

The“Made in China 2025”Plan and Firm Productivity

目前,中国经济已经进入了高质量发展的新阶段。在这一新阶段,提高企业全要素生产率无疑是实现高质量发展的重要基础。本文利用2015年颁布的《中国制造2025》作为“准自然实验”,并以2011—2018年A股制造业上市公司数据作为研究样本,考察了产业政策与企业生产率之间的因果关系。实证结果表明:《中国制造2025》有效促进了企业生产率的提高,在有效排除共同趋势、预期效应等问题后,这一结论依然稳健;在进一步对作用机制的考察中发现,《中国制造2025》主要通过资源效应(税收减免、财政补贴、信贷优惠)和竞争效应提升了企业生产率。本文的研究有助于深入理解产业政策影响企业行为的微观机理,对政府利用产业政策提振实体经济具有重要启示。

The report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Party clearly pointed out that the Chinese economy has entered a new stage of high-quality development.In this new stage,improving the enterprise's total factor productivity is undoubtedly an important foundation for boosting the real economy and achieving high-quality development.This article uses“Made in China 2025”issued in 2015 as a“quasi-natural experiment”,and uses 2011—2018 A-share manufacturing listed company data as a research sample to examine the causal relationship between industrial policy and enterprise productivity.The empirical results show that:“Made in China 2025”has effectively promoted the improvement of enterprise productivity.After effectively excluding common trends,expected effects,self-selection problems,and reverse causal problems,this conclusion is still stable;“Made in China 2025”mainly improves enterprise productivity through resource effects(tax relief,financial subsidies,credit preferences)and competition effects.The research in this paper is helpful to understand the micro-mechanism of industrial policy influencing corporate behavior,and has important implications for the government to use industrial policy to boost the real economy.