数字普惠金融与我国农村居民消费研究——基于信贷供给的中介效应分析

Digital Inclusive Finance and Rural Resident Consumption in China:Analysis Based on the Intermediary Effect of Credit Supply

基于2011-2021年省级面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型,以此探究数字普惠金融对我国农村居民消费规模、消费结构的影响,并对农村地区的土地制度、农业生产、农户创业、产业结构进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)数字普惠金融显著提高了我国农村居民的消费规模,但这种作用存在明显区域异质性,检验表明其作用在东部地区更加显著;(2)数字普惠金融能够改善农村居民消费结构;(3)数字普惠金融的发展,能够通过缓解信贷约束这一途径促进农村居民消费。最后提出了加强数字普惠金融发展助力农村消费的建议,包括制定农村数字普惠金融发展战略,强化数字普惠金融助农理念,加强数字化基础设施建设,建立多元化数字推进机制等。

Based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021,this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effect model and an intermediary effect model to study the impact of digital inclusive finance on the consumption scale and structure of rural residents,and analyzes the land system,agricultural production,rural entrepreneurship,and industrial structure in rural areas.The findings are as follows:(1) Digital inclusive finance significantly increases the consumption scale of rural residents in China,but there is a significant regional heterogeneity in this effect,and testing shows that its effect is more significant in the eastern China region.(2) Digital inclusive finance can improve the consumption structure of rural residents.(3) The development of digital inclusive finance can promote rural resident consumption by alleviating credit constraints.Finally,the paper gives suggestions to strengthen the development of digital inclusive finance to support rural consumption,including formulating a development strategy for rural digital inclusive finance,strengthening the concept of digital inclusive finance to assist agriculture,strengthening digital infrastructure construction,establishing a diversified digital promotion mechanism,and so on.