油气探矿权出让区块价值评估技术及其应用——基于蒙特卡罗模拟的折现现金流法

Block value evaluation technology of oil and gas exploration right and its application:discounted cash flow method based on Monte Carlo simulation

针对油气矿产资源在勘探开发中存在地质条件、勘探开发技术、市场等方面的不确定性,提出了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的折现现金流经济评价方法来评估油气探矿权价值。该方法可在油气探矿权内预期的资源量、勘探开发投入、操作成本及油气销售收入存在不确定性的情形下,获得不同概率的油气探矿权估值,进而为竞价方案编制提供依据。该方法应用于新疆塔里木盆地某油气探矿权出让区块的价值评估,获得该区块多个竞争报价,对应企业内部收益率发生的概率,评估得出以报价4.85亿元竞得该区块探矿权时,企业内部收益率大于8%发生的概率为75.4%。最终该区块的探矿权以4.853 2亿元成交,表明该评价方法切实可行。基于蒙特卡罗模拟的折现现金流经济评价方法可为企业适应油气探矿权竞争性出让政策提供决策依据,这对企业公开竞争获取油气探矿权有重要现实意义。

Under the new situation that the ways to obtain the oil and gas exploration right has been reformed from the previous application first,"no cost" acquisition to open competition through bidding,auction,listing and "the one with the highest price or the best evaluated bidder obtains",it is urgent to establish a set of block value evaluation techniques and methods for oil and gas exploration right,determine the value of the granting block,and formulate a bidding scheme to obtain the exploration right by open competition.Aiming at the uncertainty of oil and gas geological conditions,exploration and development technology,market and other aspects in the exploration and development of oil and gas mineral resources,this paper puts forward an economic evaluation method of discounted cash flow based on Monte Carlo simulation.According to the uncertainty of expected oil and gas resources,exploration and development investment,operating cost and sales income,this method can obtain the value of the granting blocks under different probability conditions and then provide a basis for the preparation of bidding scheme.This method has been applied to the value evaluation of the granting block of oil and gas exploration right in Tarim Basin,Xinjiang.Corresponding to different competitive quotations,the probability of occurrence for enterprise's internal rate of return is calculated respectively.When the quotation is485million yuan,it is estimated that the probability of the internal rate of return exceeding8% is75.4%.Ultimately,the exploration right of the granting block was clinched a deal with485.32million yuan,indicating that the evaluation method is feasible.The economic evaluation method of discounted cash flow based on Monte Carlo simulation provides decision-making basis for enterprises to adapt to the competitive granting policy of oil and gas mining right,and has important practical significance for enterprises to openly compete for oil and gas mining right.