近30a城市土地利用变化模拟研究进展

Research Progress in Urban Land Use Change Simulation Over the Past Thirty Years

城市土地利用变化模拟研究是当前土地科学领域的热点,基于文献综合法、归纳总结法和逻辑推理法,梳理国内外城市土地利用变化模拟的理论研究与实践进展方面的文献,论述研究中取得的成果、不足及未来研究趋势,以期为城市土地利用变化研究及城市土地管理制度的制定和科学决策提供参考.结果表明,城市土地利用变化模拟研究已从单一的数量或空间预测,向多情景、多模型的耦合方式发展;城市土地利用变化模拟的理论体系和模拟方式逐步完善,利益相关者在情景设置、情景模拟和结果验证等过程中的参与度逐步提升;城市土地利用变化模拟研究仍存在局限性,即缺乏全球和局地尺度方面的研究,模拟方式相对单一,模拟结果验证方法尚未成熟,存在过度依赖历史验证的问题.城市土地利用变化研究应聚焦增强模拟模型的可扩展性和可靠性,从而进一步预测和解释土地利用变化的格局和过程,推进情景模拟在决策支持系统中的应用.

The simulation of urban land use change is a research hotspot in the field of land science.This study employs a comprehensive literature review,summarizing findings,and logical reasoning to examine both theoretical and practical progress in urban land use change simulations,both domestically and internationally.The aim is to distill the achievements,identify gaps,and discern future research trends to inform urban land use research and decision-making processes in urban land management.Findings indicate that research in urban land use change simulation has evolved from single-variable quantity or spatial predictions to more complex,multiscenario,and multi-model coupling approaches.The theoretical framework and simulation methods for urban land use change have gradually improved,with increased stakeholder participation in scenario setting,simulation,and result validation.However,there are limitations in the current research:a lack of studies on global and local scales,relatively homogenous simulation methods,and immature result validation techniques,with an over-reliance on historical data for verification.Future efforts in urban land use change simulation should focus on enhancing the scalability and reliability of simulation models.This will further enable the prediction and explanation of land use change patterns and processes and advance the application of scenario simulations in decision-support contexts.