农业现代化水平对农业碳排放强度的影响研究

Research on Impact of Agricultural Modernization Level on Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity

构建了农业现代化水平指标体系,并利用2005—2021年我国31个省(市)的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,分析了农业现代化水平对农业碳排放强度的影响,结果表明:农业现代化水平对农业碳排放强度具有显著的抑制作用,并通过了内生性检验和稳健性检验。作用机制分析表明:农业现代化发展通过促进农业技术创新可以抑制农业碳排放强度,而土地规模化经营在农业现代化抑制农业碳排放强度的过程中发挥了遮掩效应,最后提出了在农业高质量发展进程中促进农业绿色、低碳发展的对策措施。

The paper constructed an indicator system for agricultural modernization level and used panel data from 31 provinces from 2005 to 2021 to analyze the impact of agricultural modernization level on agricultural carbon emission intensity by a fixed effects model.The results show that the level of agricultural modernization has a significant inhibitory effect on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,which has passed endogenous and robustness tests.The analysis of the mechanism of action shows that the development of agricultural modernization suppresses agricultural carbon emission intensity by promoting agricultural technological innovation,while land scale operation plays a masking effect in the process of suppressing agricultural carbon emission intensity at the level of agricultural modernization.we put forward Some countermeasures for the green and low-carbon development of agriculture in the process of high-quality agricultural development.