中国农业经济国内国际双循环:实证测度与国际比较

Domestic and International Double Cycle of China’s Agricultural Economy:Empirical Measurement and International Comparison

文章立足国际投入产出表,构建基于供需两侧的农业经济国内国际双循环测度指标和基于全球价值链的农业贸易增加值国内国际双循环分解方法,并利用2007-2019年的ADB-MRIO数据,对中国农业经济国内国际双循环进行实证测度与国际比较。研究表明:考察期内中国农业经济供给侧国内循环的占比呈下降趋势,而需求侧国内循环的占比呈上升趋势;综合农业经济国内国际双循环测度及农业贸易增加值分解来看,中国农业经济国内循环依赖程度在90%左右;从国际比较角度来看,2019年中国依赖于国内循环的农业贸易增加值占比在全球62个主要经济体中处于第5位,若单纯基于国内国际双循环的新增经济流量看,在数量上农业经济国内循环的主体地位基本确立。

Based on the international input-output tables,this paper constructs the measurement index of domestic and inter-national double cycle of agricultural economy based on both supply and demand side and domestic and international double cycle decomposition method of agricultural trade added value based on global value chain,and then uses the ADB-MRIO data from 2007 to 2019 to make an empirical measurement and international comparison of the domestic and international double circula-tion of China’s agricultural economy.The results go as the following:The share of supply-side domestic circulation in China’s agricultural economy during the study period shows a decreasing trend,while the share of demand-side domestic circulation shows an increasing trend.The agricultural economy domestic and international double circulation measurement and decomposition of agricultural trade added value show that the degree of domestic circulation dependence in China’s agricultural economy is around 90%.From the perspective of international comparison,the share of agricultural trade added value in 2019 that depends on domestic circulation in China is in the 5th place among 62 major economies of the world.Solely seen from the newly added economic flow of domestic and international double circulation,the main position of domestic circulation of agricultural economy in terms of quantity has been basically established.