黄河三角洲地面沉降研究进展与未来展望

Research Progress and Future Prospects of Land Subsidence in the Yellow River Delta

黄河三角洲是我国成陆时间最短的大型河口三角洲,由于其发育背景特殊、地质环境系统不稳定以及人类活动影响,地面沉降较为显著,引发了诸多环境问题,对自然环境和社会经济发展产生了严重威胁。从监测技术和成因机理角度出发,系统综述了黄河三角洲地区的地面沉降现状:(1)黄河三角洲地面沉降受新生地层自然压实、人为建筑重力压实、河流陆源输入减少、地下水与卤水开采、石油天然气开采以及海洋动力作用相对增强等多重因素影响,需要更详细、更系统地研究,特别是定量分离人为与自然因素在地面沉降的贡献方面,需要与其他学科如地质、岩土、力学、数学等交叉进行综合定量分析;(2)黄河三角洲地面沉降的长时空尺度的持续监测与分析、历史周期分析与未来判断分析需加强,尤其要重视海陆相互作用对地面沉降的长期和短期影响的研究;(3)地面沉降勘查、监测和精度研究及沉降评估和环境影响监测研究,尤其是海岸带退蚀与地面沉降之间的耦合关系等问题仍待深入。在今后研究黄河三角洲地面沉降的过程中,应更加注重理论模型的深入探究和新技术方法的实践,机理研究应扩展至多种模型研究;预测灾害时,应扩展到与地面沉降问题较为紧密的地面开裂、断层以及地裂缝等研究上。此外,还应对地面沉降的社会经济影响和环境影响等方面做出更多探索和实际应用。全面系统深入地了解黄河三角洲地面沉降现象,可为有效地实施三角洲生态保护和资源开发提供理论依据,具有重要的科学意义和社会经济价值。

The Yellow River Delta is a large estuarine delta with the shortest land formation time in China.Due to its special development background,unstable geological environment system and human activity influences,the land subsidence in the delta is relatively significant.This has caused many environment problems and posed a serious threat to the natural environment and socioeconomic development.From the points of monitoring technology and genetic mechanism,the status of the land subsidence in the Yellow River Delta is reviewed systemtically.①The land subsidence in the delta can be affected by a variety of factors,such as natural compaction of nascent strata,gravity compaction of anthropogenic constructions,reduction of terrestrial inputs from rivers,exploitation of groundwater and brine,exploitation of oil and natural gas,relative enhancement of oceanic dynamics,and so on.To have a clear understanding a more detailed and systemetcal study is needed,especially in the aspect of quantitative separation of the contributions of the anthropogenic and natural factors to the ground subsidence.Moreover,it is needed to conduct a comprehensive quantitative analysis with other disciplines such as geology,geotechnical,mechanics,mathematics,and so on.②For the land subsidence in the delta,it is necessary to strengthen continuous monitoring of long spatiotemporal scale,historical cycle analysis and future judgment analysis,especially to pay more attention to the research on the long-and short-term incluences of sea-land interaction on land subsidence.③The surveying,monitoring,precision studying and assessing of the land subsidence in the delta,as well as the monitoring of environmental impact,are still needed to be studied deeply,particularly in the aspect of coupling relationship between the coast erosion and the land subsidence.In the future studies of the land subsidence in the delta,more attention should be paid to the exploration of theoretical models and the practice of new techniques and methods;The mechanism study should be extended to multiple models;For predicting the disasters,the ground cracking,faults and ground fissures which are closely related to the ground subsidence should be investigated.In addition,more explorations and practical applications should be made of the effects of the ground subsidence on the socio-economic and environmental impacts.A comprehensive,systematic and indepth understanding of the land subsidence phenomenon in the Yellow River Delta can provide a theoretical basis for the effective implementation of ecological protection and resource development in the delta and has important scientific significance and socioeconomic value.