出口管制政策对企业投资的影响——来自美国实体清单政策的证据

The Impact of Export Control Policy on Corporate Investment:Evidence from the US Entity List Policy

本文使用2010—2021年A股上市公司样本,运用多期双重差分模型检验美国BIS施行的实体清单形式的出口管制政策对企业投资水平的影响及其作用机制。研究结果发现,实体清单政策显著抑制企业的投资水平并通过一系列的稳健性检验,在PSM-DID和工具变量回归分析中得到进一步证实;实体清单政策对非国有企业、高固定资产比例企业和高资本密集度企业的影响更大,主要通过削弱企业绩效、增加企业融资难度两个渠道影响企业的投资水平;实体清单政策风险显著降低同行业非受限企业的投资水平,而企业的绩效和融资约束的作用机制在实体清单政策风险的影响中仍然成立。最后,本文针对如何应对出口管制提出相应的政策建议。

To limit the development of Chinas manufacturing industry,the United States frequently uses export control policies to reduce enterprisesliving space.Using a sample of A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2021,this paper investigates the impact of the entity list policy implemented by the U.S.Bureau of Industry and Security(BIS)on the investment level and corresponding mechanisms with a staggered difference-in-difference approach.It is found that the entity list policy will significantly decrease the investment level of listed companies,whose investment rate falls by 1.99%on average,equaling to 45%of average investment rate.This result is confirmed by various robust checks as well as PSM-DID and IV analysis.Heterogeneous analysis finds that the impact is greater for non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises with high fixed asset ratio and enterprises with high capital intensity.Mechanism analysis shows that the entity list policy mainly affects the investment level of enterprises through weakening enterprisesperformance and increasing their finance constraints.Further study indicates that the entity list policy risk significantly reduces the investment level of unconstrained firms,while the mechanisms of firm performance and financing constraints still hold in the effect of entity list policy risk.Finally,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations as to how to deal with export control policies.