中国省域净碳汇效率时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of China's Provincial Net Carbon Sink Efficiency

提升净碳汇效率是推动“双碳”目标实现的重要途径。论文采用超效率SBM模型测度2010—2020年中国30个省份的净碳汇效率,分别运用空间自相关分析和地理探测器探究中国省域净碳汇效率的时空演变及影响因素,研究表明:(1)中国净碳汇效率整体呈现上升趋势,但总值偏低且区域差异明显,呈现西南及东北区域高、中部及东部沿海区域低的格局。(2)净碳汇效率存在空间自相关性,高值区域主要集中在云南、黑龙江等区域,低值区域主要集中在天津、山东等区域。(3)城市化水平、工业污染治理和经济发展产业结构是净碳汇效率空间分异的影响因素,且多数因子交互作用后均产生非线性增强作用。建议根据各区域差异化特征通过调整产业结构、加强环境规制等方法以达到社会经济低碳可持续发展。

One of the important approaches to realize the"dual carbon"goal is to improve the net carbon sink efficiency.The super-efficiency SBM model is used to measure the net carbon sink efficiency of 30 provinces in China over 2010-2020,and the spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detectors are used to explore the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of regional net carbon sink efficiency.The research shows that:(1)China's net carbon sink efficiency shows an overall upward trend,but the total value is low and the regional differences are obvious,showing a pattern of high in the southwest and northeast regions,and low in the central and eastern coastal regions.(2)There is spatial autocorrelation in the efficiency of net carbon sinks.The high-value areas are mainly concentrated in Yunnan,Heilongjiang and other regions,and the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in Tianjin,Shandong and other regions.(3)Urbanization level,industrial pollution control and economic development industrial structure are the net carbon sink efficiency influencing factors,and most of the factors interacted to produce non-linear enhancement.It is suggested to adjust the industrial structure and strengthen environmental regulations according to the different characteristics of each region to achieve low-carbon and sustainable socio-economic development.