“双碳”背景下绿色技术创新与能源消费的非线性动态关联效应——基于新疆14个地州市的探讨

Nonlinear Dynamic Correlation Effect between Green Technology Innovation and Energy Consumption under the Background of°Double Carbon":A Study of Fourteen Prefectures in Xinjiang

绿色技术创新逐渐成为经济高质量发展的新型驱动力,在“双碳”背景下,绿色技术创新对于新疆严控能源消费方面具有重要的作用。通过使用2001—2020年新疆14个地州市的面板数据,构建有效的MS-VAR模型,实证研究了新疆绿色技术创新与能源消费间的非线性动态关联关系,结果显示:新疆的绿色技术创新能够降低能源消费,但是在不同的区制之间仍具有差异。在“快速增长区制”,绿色技术创新与能源消费呈负相关关系,绿色技术创新减少了能源消费。在“平缓增长区制”,绿色技术创新与能源消费呈正相关关系,绿色技术创新促进了能源消费。该结论为新疆推进碳达峰碳中和目标提供了新的经验证据,也为有关部门制定节能减排政策提供一定的启示。

Green technology innovation has gradually become a new driving force for high-quality economic development.Under the background of dual carbon",green technology innovation plays an important role in controlling energy consumption in Xinjiang.Through the use of panel data from the fourteen prefectures in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020,an effective MS-VAR model is built to empirically study the nonlinear dynamic relationship between green technology innovation and energy consumption in Xinjiang.The results show that,in general,green technology innovation in Xinjiang can reduce energy consumption,but there are still differences between different regions.In the "rapid growth zone system",green technology innovation is negatively related to energy consumption,and green technology innovation reduces energy consumption.In the"flat growth zone system",green technology innovation is positively related to energy consumption,which promotes energy consumption.The research conclusion provides new empirical evidence for Xinjiang to promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization,and also provides some enlightenment for relevant departments to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction policies.