自由贸易试验区对所属区域经济增长的影响--基于川渝地区的“反事实”分析

The Impact of Pilot Free Trade Zones on the Economic Growth of Their Regions:A Counterfactual Analysis Based on the Sichuan-Chongqing Region

自由贸易试验区的成立对所属区域经济增长有着重要的经济意义。以川渝地区为例,利用2008年第一季度至2019年第二季度全国省域样本的GDP季度增长率、进口额、出口额及固定资产投资额数据进行合成控制,对自贸试验区的经济效应进行反事实分析。结果显示:自由贸易试验区的成立促进了川渝地区经济增长,但该影响具有异质性。对四川而言,贸易驱动对经济增长的影响较投资驱动更加显著;对重庆而言,投资驱动大于贸易驱动,且自由贸易试验区成立的经济效应具有一定的滞后性。

The establishment of pilot free trade zones has significant economic significance for the economic growth of the regions they belong to.Taking the Sichuan-Chongqing region as an example,a counterfactual analysis of the economic effects of the pilot free trade zone was conducted using synthetic controls based on GDP quarterly growth rates,import and export volumes,and fixed asset investment data from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2019 for provincial-level samples nationwide.The results show that the establishment of the pilot free trade zone has promoted economic growth in the Sichuan-Chongqing region,but this impact is heterogeneous.For Sichuan,the impact of trade-driven growth on economic growth is more significant than investment-driven growth;for Chongqing,investment-driven growth outweighs trade-driven growth,and the economic effects of the establishment of the pilot free trade zone have a certain lag.