数字贸易对中国高质量充分就业的影响

The Impact of Digital Trade on High-quality Full Employment in China

在新发展阶段如何通过数字贸易推动高质量充分就业备受关注。本文基于2013—2020年我国30个省(市、自治区)(因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,利用熵值法对数字贸易与高质量充分就业发展水平进行测度,理论阐释并实证检验了数字贸易对高质量充分就业的影响及其作用机制。研究表明:考察期数字贸易对高质量充分就业有显著推动作用,在考虑内生性问题后该结论依然稳健。机制检验结果揭示,产业结构升级与人力资本积累分别从劳动力的需求和供给端发挥着重要的中介渠道作用。门槛分析显示数字贸易水平越高,对高质量充分就业的推动作用越强。空间溢出检验发现,本地数字贸易发展对邻地就业产生正向溢出效应。异质性检验中,数字贸易对高质量就业比对充分就业的推动作用更大,对东部地区的作用强于中西部地区。研究结论为更全面地考察数字贸易对高质量充分就业的影响提供理论依据、实证支持和政策参考。

How to promote high-quality full employment through digital trade in the new development stage has attracted much attention.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)(Due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Tibet Autonomous Region,the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.)in China from 2013 to 2020,the development level of digital trade and high-quality full employment was measured by using the entropy method.It theoretically explains and empirically tests the impact of digital trade on high-quality full employment and its mechanism.The research shows that digital trade has a significant role in promoting high-quality full employment during the investigation period,and the conclusion remains robust after considering endogeneity.The results of mechanism test reveal that the upgrading of industrial structure and the accumulation of human capital play an important role as intermediary channels from the demand and supply side of labor force respectively.Threshold analysis shows that the higher the level of digital trade,the stronger the promotion of high-quality full employment.The spatial spillover test found that the development of local digital trade has a positive spillover effect on neighboring employment.In the heterogeneity test,digital trade plays a greater role in promoting high-quality employment than full employment,and its role in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions.The research conclusions provide theoretical basis,empirical support and policy reference for a more comprehensive study of the impact of digital trade on high-quality full employment.