湖北省县域粮劳变化耦合模式与乡村发展类型

Coupling modes of grain output and agricultural labor force changes and rural development types at county level in Hubei Province

利用湖北省2003—2017年81个县域的粮食产量和农业劳动力数据,运用粮劳弹性系数模型方法,分析了湖北省粮劳时空变化特征及对应耦合模式。结果表明,2003—2017年湖北省粮食生产整体呈现稳中有增态势,呈“中高周低”“中增周减”空间特征,高产区集中在鄂西北中部与江汉平原南部;农业劳动力总量持续减少,呈“东多西少”“东增西减”空间特征,密集区集中在江汉平原东部和鄂东北丘陵西部。2003—2017年湖北省最典型的粮劳耦合变化模式为粮增劳减型(60.49%),其次为粮劳同减型(23.46%)和粮劳同增型(11.11%),粮减劳增型占比最低(4.94%)。受地理条件和农业政策的影响,湖北省乡村发展类型呈现多样化并存的格局:中部多分布外延扩张型和农业现代化型县域,东部和西部多分布产业转移型和种养一体化型县域;2010年前后两时段县域乡村发展类型转换较为复杂,维持不变相对较少。

Based on the data of grain output and agricultural labor force in 81 counties of Hubei Province from 2003 to 2017,the spa-tial-temporal variation characteristics and corresponding coupling patterns of grain-labor were analyzed by using the grain-labor elas-tic coefficient model method.The results showed that grain production showed a trend of steady growth in Hubei Province from 2003 to 2017.The spatial characteristics of grain production were high in the middle and low in the surrounding area,increasing in the middle and decreasing in the surrounding area.The high grain production areas had been concentrated in the middle part of northwest Hubei Province and the south of Jianghan Plain.The total amount of agricultural labor force continued to decrease,and showed the spatial characteristics of more in the east and less in the west and increasing in the east and decreasing in the west.The labor-intensive areas were concentrated in the east of Jianghan Plain and the west of the northeast hills of Hubei Province.From 2003 to 2017,the most typi-cal coupling change pattern of grain and labor was grain increasing and labor decreasing(60.49%),followed by grain and labor de-creasing(23.46%)and grain and labor increasing(11.11%),and the proportion of grain decreasing and labor increasing was the low-est(4.94%).Under the influence of geographical conditions and agricultural policies,rural development types in Hubei Province showed a diversified and coexisting pattern.The extension type and agricultural modernization type counties were mainly distributed in the central part of Hubei Province,while the industrial transfer type and the planting and breeding integration type counties were main-ly distributed in the eastern and western parts.In the two periods before and after 2010,the transformation of rural development types in the county was complicated,and relatively few remained unchanged.