产业结构高级化对区域用水强度时空差异的驱动效应

Driving effect of industrial structure upgrading on the temporal and spatial difference of regional water use intensity

从时空维度将区域用水强度的影响效应分解为工业化效应、产业结构高级化效应、第三产业节水技术效应、生活用水承载力效应以及城镇人口用水规模效应,构造区域用水强度时空差异的LMDI分解拓展模型,以长江经济带为例,深入探究产业结构高级化对用水强度时空差异的驱动渠道以及内在影响机制。结果表明,产业结构高级化是2000—2020年抑制长江经济带用水强度增加的一个重要因素,但其抑制作用自2012年起逐年减弱,转为促进用水强度的增长,2020年又转为抑制作用。自2011年起,抑制或促进各省市相比于上海市用水强度增加的驱动力皆存在弱化趋势。服务化态势下的各省市产业结构调整可抑制其相比于上海市用水强度的增加,安徽省、江西省、湖南省、江苏省和四川省要加强水资源在产业间(尤其是一二产业间)的合理化配置并优化产业内部(尤其是第二产业)的耗水结构,贵州省、湖南省、云南省和湖北省服务化水平较低,仍需进一步发展第三产业。

From the perspective of time and space,the effect of regional water use intensity was decomposed into the industrialization effect,industrial structure upgrading effect,water-saving technology effect of the tertiary industry,carrying capacity effect of domes-tic water use,and the scale effect of urban population water use.The LMDI decomposition expansion model of temporal and spatial dif-ferences in regional water use intensity was constructed.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example,the driving channels and internal influencing mechanisms of industrial structure upgrading on temporal and spatial differences in water use intensity were explored in depth.The results showed that the upgrading of industrial structure was an important factor to inhibit the increase of water use intensity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020,but its inhibitory effect had weakened year by year since 2012,and had turned to promote the growth of water use intensity,and then turned to inhibitory effect in 2020.Since 2011,there had been a weakening trend in the driving force of inhibiting or promoting the increase of water use intensity compared with Shanghai.The industri-al structure adjustment of provinces and cities under the trend of service could inhibit the increase of water use intensity compared with Shanghai.Anhui Province,Jiangxi Province,Hunan Province,Jiangsu Province and Sichuan Province should strengthen the rational allocation of water resources between industries(especially between the first and second industries)and optimize the water consump-tion structure within the industry(especially the second industry).Guizhou Province,Hunan Province,Yunnan Province and Hubei Province had a low level of service,and still needed to further develop the tertiary industry.