绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型:系统耦合及动态演进

Green Financial Development and Economic Green Transformation:System Coupling and Dynamic Evolution

要实现“碳达峰”与“碳中和”双目标必须加快经济绿色转型,绿色金融发展是经济绿色转型的重要工具,经济绿色转型为绿色金融发展提供更多的应用空间,两者相互影响。在绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型的理论内涵与耦合机理分析基础上,构建绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型的综合评价指标体系,并基于2011—2020年的省级面板数据,采用熵值赋权法和系统耦合协调度模型测度二者的系统耦合度和协调度,然后进一步采用Dagum基尼系数测算了系统耦合协调度的区域差异及其来源,采用Kernel核密度估计和马尔科夫链分析方法探究系统耦合协调度的动态演进趋势。研究结果表明,虽然样本期内我国绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型的整体水平依然偏低,但二者均呈上升趋势,而且二者相互促进、同步发展的趋势愈发明显。绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型的系统耦合协调度表现出明显的区域差异性,东部地区的系统耦合协调度水平最高,中部次之,西部最低,地区内差异和地区间差异是系统耦合协调度区域差异的主要来源,东部和西部的地区内差异逐渐扩大。各省绿色金融发展与经济绿色转型的系统耦合协调度虽然存在状态转移的可能性,但保持原状态概率较大。

In order to achieve the double goals of“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”,we should accelerate the green transformation of economy.The development of green finance is an important tool for the green transformation of economy.The development of economic green transformation provides more application space for green finance,and the two affect with each other.Based on the analysis of the theoretical connotation and coupling mechanism of green financial development and economic green transformation,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of green financial development and economic green transformation,and measures the system coupling and synergy of the two based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020 by using the entropy weighting method and the system coupling co-scheduling model.Then,the Dagum Gini coefficient is further used to measure the regional differences and sources of the system coupling synergy,and the Kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis are used to explore the dynamic evolution trend of the system coupling systematicness.The research results show that although the overall level of China's green financial development and economic green transformation is still low in the sample period,both are on the rise,and the trend of mutual promotion and synchronous development is increasingly obvious.The system coupling synergy between green financial development and economic green transformation shows obvious regional differences.The eastern region has the highest level of system coupling synergy,followed by the central region,and the western region has the lowest level.Intra-regional differences and inter-regional differences are the main sources of regional differences in system coupling synergy,but the intra-regional differences between the eastern and western regions are gradually expanding.Although the coupling coordination degree of green finance and economic green transformation in each province has the possibility of state transition,the probability of maintaining the original state is large.