广东省人口发展现状特征及趋势研究(下)

Research on Current Characteristics and Trends of Population Development in Guangdong Province(PartⅡ)

以2020年第七次全国人口普查资料为基础和2020年年末广东省人口为基期,借助PADIS-INT软件,运用队列要素法,代入人口预测参数,对广东未来30年人口规模和结构进行了预测,得出高、中、低三种方案。针对广东人口发展趋势,提出树立保持第一动力,增强第二动力,稳定第三动力的人口总量发展战略;提高全要素生产率,提升劳动人口质量,变常住人口大省为人才强省;开展针对性人才引入,逐步优化人口性别结构;做好人口发展规划和评估预案,推动人口平衡协调健康发展等可操作性的政策建议。

Based on the data of the seventh national population census in 2020 and the population of Guangdong province at the end of 2020,with the help of PADIS-INT software and cohort-component method,the population size and structure of Guangdong in the next 30 years were predicted,and three schemes of high,medium and low were obtained.According to the population development trend of Guangdong,a few suggestions about Guangdong population development trend are proposed:Establishing a population development strategy maintaining the primary driving force,strengthening the second driving force and stabilizing the third driving force;Improving the total factor productivity and the quality of the labor force,and turning a province with large permanent population into a strong province for talents;Fittingly introducing talents and gradually optimizing population gender structure;Making plans for population development and evaluation,so as to promote the balanced,coordinated and healthy development of population.