考虑多参数故障影响的风光联合出力概率评估

Probability Evaluation of Wind Solar Joint Output Considering the Influence of Multi Parameter Faults

大量的风力发电、光伏发电系统并入电网会对电力系统的可靠性带来严峻挑战,其出力的不确定性也会给电力系统可靠性评估带来困难。为了更好地对风电场、光伏电场联合出力进行评估,通过计及风光随机性和波动性的特点,同时考虑风电场、光伏电场内部发电设备的故障、降额和停运状态,建立风电场、光伏电场联合出力的可靠性模型,基于蒙特卡洛法对联合发电有功出力进行概率评估,并且分析风电场、光伏电场在计及故障情况下对评估结果的影响。仿真结果表明,所建立的模型能够很好地对联合系统进行出力评估。

The integration of a large number of wind and photovoltaic power generation systems into the power grid will pose a serious challenge to the reliability of the power system,and the uncertainty of their output will also make it difficult to evaluate the reliability of the power system.In order to better evaluate the combined output of wind and photovoltaic power plants,a reliability model for the combined output of wind and photovoltaic power plants is established by taking into account the characteristics of wind and solar randomness and volatility,as well as the failure,derating,and shutdown status of internal power generation equipment in the wind and photovoltaic power plants.Based on the Monte Carlo method,the probability evaluation of the active output of the combined generation is carried out,and the wind and photovoltaic power plants are analyzed The impact of photovoltaic electric fields on evaluation results,taking into account fault conditions.The simulation results show that the established model can effectively evaluate the output of the joint system.