亚洲跨境信贷网络特征及影响因素分析——兼论中日银行业的地位变化

Characteristics of Asian Cross-Border Credit Network and Its Influencing Factors:Changing Positions of Chinese and Japanese Banking

本文以国际清算银行公布的2016—2021年14个亚洲经济体银行业的跨境信贷数据为样本,利用欧式距离对各经济体银行业之间的信贷联系进行测度,由此构建亚洲跨境信贷网络,分析网络结构的动态特征及驱动因素。结果表明,2016—2020年亚洲跨境信贷网络结构呈现出高密度、高聚类系数的特征,中国、中国香港、日本、新加坡等是网络核心,外围经济体具有向核心靠拢的趋势,受新冠疫情影响,2021年网络聚类系数小幅回落。中国银行业在网络中的重要性显著上升,尤其是资金贷出方的角色显著增强,与其联系最紧密的经济体为土耳其、澳大利亚和印度,而中国港澳台地区与内地(大陆)的关联强度不如预期。日本银行业一直是亚洲重要的资金贷出方,与中国港澳台地区、新加坡银行业紧密关联。此外,新加坡、澳大利亚、巴林银行业在网络中发挥了重要的桥梁作用。QAP回归分析显示,亚洲经济体间的金融发展水平差异和政府治理水平差异越小,越容易形成跨境信贷联系。本文为中国银行业跨境信贷业务的发展以及亚洲区域金融一体化的推进提供了政策启示。

Based on cross-border credit data of the banking sectors of 14 Asian economies from 2016 to 2021 released by the Bank for International Settlements,the credit linkages between the banking sectors are measured by constructing Euclidean distances,and the Asian regional cross-border credit network is constructed to analyze the dynamic characteristics and driving factors of the network structure.The results show that from 2016 to 2020,the cross-border credit network structure in Asia presented the characteristics of high density and high clustering coefficient.China,Hong Kong of China,Japan and Singapore were the core of the network,while peripheral economies tended to converge to the core.But because of the COVID-19 pandemic,the network clustering coefficient slightly declined in 2021.Chinese banking industry played an increasingly important role as a lender of funds in the network,and showed the closest links with the banking of Turkiye,Australia and India,but fewer links with that of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan of China than expected.Japanese banking has been a vital lender in Asia,with close links to the banking of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan of China and Singapore.In addition,the banking of Singapore,Australia and Bahrain played a significant bridging role in the network.The QAP regression analysis shows that smaller differences in financial development and governance levels are more likely to contribute to the formation of cross-border credit linkages among Asian economies.This paper provides policy enlightenment for developing the cross-border credit business of Chinese banking and promoting regional financial integration inAsia.