疫情对长沙市居民公共交通出行行为影响研究

Study on the Impact of Epidemic on Public Transport Behavior of Residents in Changsha City

为了探究疫情对长沙市居民公共交通出行的影响,针对长沙市2019—2021年公共汽电车、轨道交通、出租汽车三种交通方式客运量变化,采用问卷星、电话询问线上问卷对长沙市居民进行问卷调查,问卷内容主要从长沙市居民个人属性、出行属性、疫情风险感知三方面进行获取,利用多元线性回归分析居民出行频次的影响因素,多分类Logistic回归模型分析影响因素对于居民倾向选择公共交通方式的影响程度。研究结果显示:处于中高风险地区、家庭拥有私家车数量越多、保护动机越高的居民越容易减少出行频次;年纪越大越倾向选择公共汽电车;保护动机越高、不需要去指定地点办公的居民越容易选择轨道交通出行。本研究有助于为当地交通管控部门制定相应的疫情防控措施提供依据。

In order to explore the impact of the epidemic on the public transport of residents in Changsha City,a questionnaire survey was conducted among the residents of Changsha City,including the passenger volume changes of public trams,rail transit and taxi before and after the epidemic.The contents of the questionnaire were mainly obtained from the three aspects of Changsha residents'personal attributes,travel attributes and epidemic risk perception.Multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of residents'travel frequency,and multiple Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influence degree of influencing factors on residents'tendency to choose public transport.The results show that residents in medium-high risk areas,with more private cars and higher motivation for protection are more likely to reduce the frequency of travel.Older people tend to choose public trams;the higher the protection motivation,the easier the residents who do not need to go to the designated place to work choose rail transit travel.This study is helpful to provide a basis for local traffic control departments to formulate corresponding epidemic prevention and control measures.