山东省集中供热面积及煤耗增量预测

Prediction of Central Heating Area and Incremental Coal Consumption in Shandong Province

综合考虑城乡结构、GDP、人口数量、城镇化率等参数,建立集中供热面积预测模型,对山东省集中供热面积、供暖期集中供热煤耗增量进行预测研究。2032年,山东省集中供热面积出现拐点,建筑供热能耗达峰。“十六五”末山东省集中供热煤耗出现负增长,比“十五五”末减少30.40×10^(4)t。

By comprehensively considering parameters such as urban and rural structure,GDP,population,and urbanization rate,a central heating area prediction model is established to conduct prediction research on the central heating area and the increase in central heating coal consumption during the heating period in Shandong Province.In 2032,the central heating area of Shandong Province will have an inflection point,and the energy consumption of building heating will peak.At the end of the“16th Five-Year Plan”,the coal consumption for centralized heating in Shandong Province will show a negative growth,30.40×10^(4)t lower than that at the end of the“15th Five-Year Plan”.