长三角地区农业碳排放时空特征和脱钩弹性研究

Research on the Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region and Decoupling Elasticity

本文基于农业物资、能源利用、水稻种植、禽畜养殖四个维度11种碳源,测算了长三角地区2012年至2021年26个城市的农业碳排放总量。结果表明:样本期间,农业碳排放总量年均下降1.32%;农业碳排放总量地区差异较大,传统农业区和非传统农业区农业碳排放差异较大;盐城的农业碳排放总量一直居于首位,2021年高达160.89万吨,是农业碳排放总量最小地区铜陵的11.58倍。本文利用Tapio脱钩模型分析了农业碳排放和农业经济发展的脱钩关系。从横向角度来看,绝大多数城市已经实现了农业碳排放脱钩;从纵向角度来看,2012年至2020年脱钩效应显著,2021年部分地区农业碳排放类型由强脱钩转变成衰弱脱钩甚至是弱脱钩。

Based on 11 carbon sources from four dimensions:agricultural materials,energy utilization,rice cultivation,and livestock breeding,the total agricultural carbon emissions of 26 cities in the Yang⁃tze River Delta region from 2012 to 2021 were calculated.The results show that:during the sample period,the total agricultural carbon emissions decreased by 1.32%on average annually;the total agricultural carbon emissions vary greatly between regions,and the differences in agricultural carbon emissions between tradi⁃tional agricultural areas and non-traditional agricultural areas are large;the total agricultural carbon emissions in Yancheng have been It ranks first,reaching 1.6089 million tons in 2021,which is 11.58 times that of Tongling,the area with the smallest total agricultural carbon emissions.The Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural eco⁃nomic development.From a horizontal perspective,the vast majority of cities have achieved decoupling of ag⁃ricultural carbon emissions;from a vertical perspective,the decoupling effect was significant from 2012 to 2020,and in 2021 the agricultural carbon emission type in some areas changed from strong decoupling to weak Decoupling is even weak decoupling.