京九铁路运营初期对沿线地区第二产业发展的影响效果评估——基于合成控制法的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact and Effects of the Initial Operation of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway on the Development of the Secondary Industry in the Surrounding Regions——A Synthesis Control Method

本文基于1990—2005年中国各省份与京九铁路沿线城市的面板数据,以1996年京九铁路干线开通为准自然实验,利用合成控制法评估京九铁路运营初期对沿线地区第二产业发展的影响。研究发现:京九铁路运营初期对沿线地区第二产业发展水平有显著的促进作用,且这一积极效果呈现出不断增强的趋势。经过截面与时间维度的安慰剂检验、替换变量衡量指标等稳健性检验之后,上述结论仍然成立。

This paper,based on panel data spanning from 1990 to 2005 for various provinces in China and cit⁃ies along the Beijing-Kowloon Railway,employs the opening of the mainline of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway in 1996 as a quasi-natural experiment.Utilizing the synthetic control method,we assess the impact of the ini⁃tial operation of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway on the development of the secondary industry in the surround⁃ing regions.The study reveals that during the initial operation phase,the Beijing-Kowloon Railway signifi⁃cantly stimulates the level of development in the secondary industry along its route,and this positive ef⁃fect exhibits a trend of continuous enhancement.Through rigorous tests such as placebo tests across crosssectional and time dimensions,alternative variable metrics,and other robustness checks,the aforemen⁃tioned conclusion remains valid.