东亚区域产业链重构的经济效应:基于全球多区域投入产出模型的反事实分析

The Economic effect of Industrial Chain Reconstruction in East Asia: Counterfactual Analysis Based on Global Multi-region Input-output Model

在中美脱钩、新冠疫情冲击等新形势下,东亚区域产业链重构备受各界关注。但目前学界对东亚区域产业链重构的研究大多使用定性方法研究其动因、趋势等,缺乏对重构影响的定量分析。量化分析东亚区域产业链重构的效应有助于更加深刻地认识其带来的影响。文章利用全球多区域投入产出模型,对东亚区域产业链重构的经济效应进行反事实模拟分析,并进行稳健性分析。文章量化分析中国中低端产业向东盟十国转移、日本和韩国高端产业向中国转移的影响,以及中国承担产业转入与转出双重角色时的综合效应,分析东亚区域产业链重构通过上下游产业关联带来的产业层面的影响。研究发现,中国资本密集型产业转出的影响远大于劳动密集型产业转出,中国承接日韩技术密集型产业对自身国内生产总值(GDP)的拉动作用有限;东盟十国承接中国产业的能力具有明显的差异,泰国、印度尼西亚、越南、马来西亚受益相对较大,其他国家受益相对较小,因产业转移而获得较大受益的国家能够有效抵御新冠疫情冲击的影响;产业关联放大了东亚区域产业链重构的影响。

Under the new circumstances of the decoupling between China and the United States and the impact of the pandemic,the reconstruction of the industrial chain in East Asia has attracted attention from all walks of life. However,most of the current studies on industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia use qualitative methods to study its causes and trends,and lack quantitative analysis on the impact of reconstruction. In this paper,the global multi-regional input-output model was used to conduct a counterfactual simulation analysis on the economic effects of regional industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia,and the robustness analysis was conducted. Specifically,this paper quantifies the impact of the transfer of low-end industries from China to ten ASEAN countries and high-end industries from Japan and South Korea to China,as well as the comprehensive effect of China's dual role of industrial output and input,and analyzes the industry-level impact of industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia through upstream and downstream industrial association. It is found that the impact of China's capital-intensive industries transferring out is much greater than that of labor-intensive industries transferring out,and the lifting effect of China' s technology-intensive industries undertaking Japan and South Korea on its GDP is limited. There are obvious differences in the capacity of the ten ASEAN countries to undertake Chinese industries;countries that have benefited more from industrial transfer can effectively withstand the impact of the pandemic. Industrial association amplifies the impact of regional industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia.