中国2023年经济形势分析与2024年展望

Analysis of China's Economic Situation in 2023 and Outlook for Analysis of China’s Economic Situation in 2023 and Outlook for 2024

2023年是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年,经济恢复中的矛盾和挑战凸显,但也存在许多有利条件。文章基于重要统计指标和统计数据总结了2023年经济运行的基本特点:从生产角度看,经济增速持续恢复;第三产业对经济增长的贡献最大;第二产业对经济增速持续恢复发挥重要作用。从需求角度看,消费需求拉动作用明显提升;投资需求对经济增长的拉动作用明显回落;净出口需求持续走弱,向下拉动经济增长。从收入角度看,居民收入增速稳定回升且快于GDP增速;企业利润降幅持续收窄。从价格角度看,消费领域价格涨幅明显回落;生产领域价格持续下降,降幅由扩大转为收窄。文章深入分析了中国当前经济发展中面临着有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱等挑战,同时经济发展中也具有新经济新动能持续增长、宏观政策空间广等有利条件,并对2024年经济发展进行了展望,初步判断,2024年经济增速在5%左右。

2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,and also the beginning after the transition of epidemic prevention and control.The contradictions and challenges in economic recovery are prominent,but there are also many favorable conditions.Based on important statistical indicators and data,the basic characteristics of economic operation are summarized in 2023.From the perspective of production,in 2023,the economic growth rate recovers continuously.The tertiary industry contributes the most to economic growth.And the secondary industry plays an important role in the sustained recovery of economic growth.From the demand point of view,the pulling effect of consumer demand is obviously improved,but the contribution rate of investment demand reduces obviously,and the net export demand continues to weaken,which drives economic growth downward.From the perspective of income,the growth rate of residents’income rises steadily and is faster than GDP growth,and the decline of corporate profits continues to narrow.From view of the price point,the price increases in the consumer sector has dropped significantly.Prices in the production sector continues to decline,and the decline changed from expansion to narrowing.In addition,the challenges and favorable conditions faced are analyzed in the current economic development,and the economic development are looked ahead in 2024.According to preliminary judgment,the economic growth rate will be approximately 5%in 2024.