基于偏离份额及其拓展分析法的湖南省制造业发展趋势和对策研究

Research on the Development Trends and Countermeasures of Hunan Province’s Manufacturing Industry Based on Deviation Share and Its Expansion Analysis Method

为探究“十二五”和“十三五”期间湖南省制造业产业变迁,为湖南省制造业高质量发展提供科学对策,基于湖南省和地区五省份2010—2020年制造业细分行业数据,分析湖南省制造业产业结构和竞争力演变。运用传统偏离份额、动态偏离份额等方法,对2011—2020年湖南省制造业的产业结构和竞争力做了定量分析。结果表明,“十三五”以来,湖南省占绝对优势地位的制造业细分行业数量不断减少;竞争力逐渐增强,但产业结构还需进一步优化;三种方法计算出来的优势产业相对固定等。根据以上结论,提出加快制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化转型;合理高效配置和优化资源;加大研发投入,重视创新型人才培养;提高自主创新能力等对策建议。

In order to explore the industrial changes in Hunan’s manufacturing industry from the“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”to the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”and provide scientific strategies for the high-quality development of Hunan’s manufacturing industry,there is currently a lack of research on Hunan’s manufacturing industry subdivision industry as the research object in academia.Moreover,there is even less in-depth analysis of Hunan’s regional manufacturing industry subdivision industry structure and competitiveness.Traditional deviation share method,such as dynamic deviation share method was used to conduct quantitative analysis of Hunan’s manufacturing industry structure and competitiveness from 2011 to 2020.The analysis results show that since the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,the number of manufacturing industry subdivision industries with absolute advantages in Hunan has been decreasing.Competitiveness has gradually increased,but the industrial structure still needs further optimization.The advantageous industries calculated by three methods are relatively fixed,etc.Based on these conclusions,suggestions are proposed for Hunan’s manufacturing industry such as accelerating the transformation of high-end,intelligent,and green upgrading of manufacturing industry,rationally and efficiently allocating and optimizing resources,increasing investment in research and development,attaching importance to innovative talent training,and improving independent innovation capabilities.