长壁工作面支架阻力与涌水量时间序列数据联动关系分析

Analysis of linkage relationship between longwall face support resistance and water inflow time series data

长壁工作面矿压与涌水量间的数据联动关系是实现基于矿山多源信息融合进行开采参数动态决策和灾害智能预警的基础内容之一。基于工作面支架阻力与涌水量现场数据,建立了时间序列GARCH模型,从静态和动态角度挖掘出矿压与涌水量之间的联动性和数据结构特征,提出了基于Almon分布模型的支架工作阻力与涌水量的滞后联动时间计算方法。研究结果表明:工作面回采期间工作面涌水量峰值和支架阻力之间具有显著的时变关联性;工作面支架阻力变动率和涌水量变动率均呈现非正态分布且具有波动集聚性和自相关性;在平稳时间序列ADF单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验和自相关检验的基础上,构建了支架阻力与涌水量数据的ARMA-GARCH-t-Copula边缘分布组合模型,确定了采用Clayton-Copula函数来描述两者数据的非对称相关结构特征和数据联动程度,可以捕捉到工作面支架阻力处于下降趋势或者剧烈波动时数据联动性更强,即顶板发生来压时,工作面涌水量也将出现峰值拐点;从动态角度建立了DCC-GARCH分析模型,案例工作面支架工作阻力和涌水量动态系数在-0.2649~0.2649波动,总体波动具有正联动性和长期协整关系;通过PDL估计模型对Almon分布滞后模型的参数进行了分析,提出了工作面支架阻力和涌水量数据滞后期的计算方法。研究成果可为长壁开采涌水量动态预测与智能预警提供基础数据分析模型。

The data linkage relationship between mine pressure and water yield in longwall face is one of the basic con⁃tents to realize the dynamic decision⁃making of mining technical parameters and the intelligent early⁃warning of mine disasters on the basis of multi⁃source information fusion.Based on the field data of support resistance and water yield in longwall face,a time series GARCH model was established,and the linkage relationship and data struc⁃ture characteristics between mine pressure and water inflow were mined from both static and dynamic points of view.A calculation method of lag linkage time between mine pressure and water yield based on the Almon distributed model was developed.The results revealed that the relation between peak water yield and support resistance is highly time⁃dependent during longwall mining operation.The variation rates of support resistance and water yield in working face presented a non⁃normal distribution,volatility clustering and self⁃correlation.An AR-MA-GARCH-t-Copula edge distribution combined model on the field data of support resistance and water yield was established from a static point of view,based on the ADF unit root test for time series stationarity,the Granger causality test,and autocorrela⁃tion test.The Clayton⁃Copula function was employed to describe the asymmetric data structure and data linkage,which can capture that the data linkage is stronger when the support resistance presents a downward trend or violent fluctuation,that is,the peak water yield occurred along with the roof weighting.A DCC⁃GARCH model,which was established from a dynamic point of view,shows that the dynamic coefficients of the data of support resistance and wa⁃ter yield fluctuates between-0.2649 and 0.2649.There is a positive linkage and a long⁃term cointegration relation⁃ship between the fluctuations of support resistance and water yield.A method for calculating the time lag between sup⁃port resistance and water yield was developed based on the parameter determination of the Almon distributed mod⁃el through PDL estimation model.The results can provide a basic data analysis model for the dynamic prediction and intelligent early warning of water yield in longwall mining.