形态演变和驱动发展:天津城市空间拓展与影响因素研究

Morphological Evolution and Driving Development:A Study on the Expansion and Infl uencing Factors of Urban Space in Tianjin

我国的城市发展已由增量扩张转为存量优化,通过对处于稳定发展阶段城市的空间形态和拓展因素的研究,有助于挖掘城市发展的规律特征,对未来的城市规划和城市更新起到引导和调控作用,促进城市转向高质量可持续发展。文章以天津市为例,以1985—2020年的城市遥感影像数据为基础,利用GIS工具对天津的城市扩张进行定量化和可视化分析,并通过逻辑回归(logistic regression)的方法,利用社会经济数据对影响城市发展的因素进行定量化研究,以探寻城市扩张的规律和驱动因素,为城市的更新发展探寻方向。

With the development of urbanization,Chinese urban development has changed from incremental expansion to stock optimization.Through the research on the infl uencing factors of spatial form evolution and expansion of cities in the stage of stable development,it is helpful to excavate the laws and characteristics of urban development,guide and regulate the future urban planning and urban renewal,and promote the city to turn to high-quality sustainable development.Taking Tianjin as an example,based on the urban remote sensing image data of Tianjin from 1985 to 2020,this paper makes a quantitative and visual research on the urban expansion and urban development factors aff ected by using GIS and logistic regression,so as to explore the direction for the renewal and development of the city.