财政省直管县对县级财政收支平衡的改革效应——对地方财政安全的一种解释

The Fiscal Reform Effect of Country Directly Administrated by Province on the Balance of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure at the County Level:An Explanation for Local Financial Security

财政安全是经济安全的基础和保障。财政省直管县改革是构筑县级财政安全防线的重要屏障,是解释中国地方政府财政安全的重要途径。本文选取山西省作为典型案例,以财政省直管县为准自然实验,考察了财政分权改革对县级财政收支平衡度的政策效应。采取倾向得分匹配与双重差分法相结合(PSM+DID)的方式,识别出改革对县级财政收支比的因果处置效应,并从社会资源整合能力机制、内部动力机制和外部压力机制三个角度验证了因果处置效应的内在机理。研究表明,财政省直管县改革显著提升试点县6个百分比的财政收支比,且政策效应具有滞后性和持续性。这一结论在通过改变计量方法、更换样本以及安慰剂检验后依然成立。本文从财政体制改革角度为认识地方财政安全提供了解释路径,为持续推进和深化财政省直管县改革提供了学理依据。

Financial security is the basis and guarantee of economic security.The fiscal reform of country directly administrated by province is an important barrier to build the county-level financial security defense line and is an important way to explain the financial security of Chinese local governments.This paper takes Shanxi province is selected as a typical case,and the fiscal reform of country directly administrated by province as a quasi natural experiment to examine the policy effect of fiscal decentralization reform on county-level fiscal revenue and expenditure balance.Using propensity score matching and differential method,we identify the causal disposition effect of reform on county-level fiscal revenue and expenditure ratio,and verify the internal mechanism of the causal disposition effect from three perspectives:social resource integration capacity mechanism,internal motivation mechanism and external pressure mechanism.The research shows that the fiscal reform of country directly administrated by province significantly increases the fiscal revenue and expenditure ratio of pilot counties by 6 percentage points,and the policy effect has a lag and continuity.This conclusion held true after changing the measurement method,changing the sample,and testing with placebo.From the perspective of the reform of the financial system,this paper provides an explanation for the understanding of local financial security,and provides a theoretical basis for the continuous promotion and deepening of the fiscal reform of country directly administrated by province.